Big Money on the Line on Premier League’s Final Day

One day remains in the Premier League season.

Though Arsenal has already won the title, a huge amount of money is still up for grabs. Four spots in the Champions League have already been clinched by Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Aston Villa. But at least one—and potentially two—spots are on the line Sunday morning, when all 20 teams will kick off at the exact same time.

The Champions League is the richest soccer tournament in the world. For example, in prize money alone—not counting lucrative broadcasting or stadium revenues—Chelsea earned about $106 million from reaching the round of 16, about twice what Aston Villa reportedly earned for winning the second-tier Europa League.

As it stands, the top five English teams will play in the Champions League next year, with sixth and seventh place qualifying for the Europa League, and eighth qualifying for the Conference League. But England could get a coveted sixth spot in the Champions League depending on Sunday’s results. 

All told, six different clubs are fighting for European qualification on Sunday.

At the bottom of the table, Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham are desperate to avoid the catastrophe of relegation. (Burnley and Wolverhampton will finish 19th and 20th and get sent down to the Championship next year.)

Sitting Pretty at the Top

Arsenal cemented its spot at the top of the table when Bournemouth tied Manchester City on Tuesday. Arsenal will lift the trophy on Sunday for the first time in 22 years following their final match against Crystal Palace. The club has already made £760 million, or roughly $1 billion in revenue this season, and that total could be even bigger if it wins the Champions League final on May 30.

That’s the most lucrative season in the history of English soccer.

As for second-place Manchester City, the club is heading into massive change this offseason. Manager Pep Guardiola finally admitted Friday that he is leaving the team after Sunday’s game, capping a spectacular 10-year run during which City regularly dominated the league. Guardiola’s City teams won six Premier League titles in seven years, and racked up trophies in the FA Cup and Carabao Cup. On the pitch, John Stones and captain Bernardo Silva are also departing.

Manchester United will finish third, righting the ship after a multi-year skid and 15th place finish last year. But that’s the highest place in the table locked in before Sunday, which is annually one of the craziest singular days in sports.

How It Works

Aston Villa, currently sitting in fourth, already qualified for the Champions League by winning the Europa League final on Wednesday—much to the delight of future monarch Prince William. But the team’s performance on Sunday will decide whether England sends five or six teams to the Champions League.

If Villa stays in fourth place, then whoever comes in fifth heads to the Champions League. But if Villa falls to fifth place with a loss to Manchester City and a Liverpool win over Brentford, then the Premier League will get an additional Champions League spot, so whichever team comes in sixth domestically would be elevated to Europe’s highest competition. 

Heading into Sunday, that team is Bournemouth. The club has been around for 127 years. Under the ownership of American billionaire Bill Foley, the Cherries have clinched their first-ever European qualification. 

A win or draw against Nottingham Forest on Sunday would mean Bournemouth would finish no worse than sixth; Brighton would pass Bournemouth for sixth if they beat Manchester United and Bournemouth loses.

To keep sixth place, they need to win or draw; a Bournemouth loss and Brighton win that makes up the current five-point goal differential would bump Bournemouth out of sixth.

“I think for a club like Bournemouth, when you get the surplus of money that comes in with finishing in Europe, you’re able to develop the squad more, you’re able to develop the stadium more, you’re able to develop the training ground and take those next steps,” Bournemouth player Tyler Adams told Front Office Sports in April. “And ultimately, it just helps you kind of continue that trajectory of where you’re trying to go.”

Bournemouth could still take the fifth spot outright from defending Premier League champion Liverpool, but it would need a lot to go right: a Liverpool loss, a Bournemouth win, and making up a current six-point goal differential.

‘Very Painful’

Despite near-certain Champions League qualification, the situation with Liverpool is reaching a boiling point.

Liverpool legend Mohamed Salah is exiting the club, as is veteran Andy Robertson. Last week, Salah delivered a strongly worded message on social media where he said qualifying for the Champions League is the “bare minimum.”

“Us crumbling to yet another defeat this season was very painful and not what our fans deserve,” Salah posted. “I want to see Liverpool go back to being the heavy metal attacking team that opponents fear and back to being a team that wins trophies.”

Many interpreted his comments, which several of his teammates liked, as a dig at head coach Arne Slot, with “heavy metal” football being a reference to ex-manager Jürgen Klopp’s methods.

Slot, whose job security has been in question all season after winning the Premier League in his first campaign last year, publicly shrugged off the post, saying “I don’t think it is that important what I feel” about it. He echoed that the team needs to qualify for the Champions League on Sunday. “Mo and I both have the same interest, we want the best for this club.”

The team also took a blow on Friday when England’s World Cup roster was announced, and featured zero Liverpool players for the first time since 1986.

Jockeying for Europe

Moving down the table, several teams are still in the running for Europe, including Brighton & Hove Albion, Chelsea, Brentford, and Sunderland. 

Brighton, facing Manchester United, could sneak into the possible sixth Champions League spot; it could also entirely miss out on Europe. A win on Sunday guarantees Brighton will play in Europe next year.

Chelsea, Brentford, and Sunderland can all qualify for the Europa or Conference Leagues. Brentford faces Liverpool, while Chelsea and Sunderland play each other. Chelsea would make at least the Conference League with a win while Sunderland would need a win and some help. Brentford needs a win and some help from Chelsea to ensure it plays in Europe next year.

No matter what, Chelsea is out of the Champions League, although the club got a $110 million boost from winning the Club World Cup last year.

Fifteenth-place Crystal Palace can also earn a spot in the Europa League if it wins the Conference League final against Spanish side Rayo Vallecano on Wednesday. Including Crystal Palace, up to nine teams can reach Europe.

Out of European contention but still making headlines is Newcastle United, whose Saudi owners, the Kingdom’s Public Investment Fund, are pulling funding for LIV Golf and recently offloaded a Saudi Pro League team. Reports this week have indicated that the PIF is interested in selling off minority ownership of Newcastle.

On the Way Down

With only one more game remaining, Tottenham Hotspur has still not avoided relegation.

Spurs are one of Europe’s biggest and richest clubs, having played in England’s top flight for nearly half a century. The team played in the Champions League this season. And yet Tottenham is in 17th place, only two points out of the relegation zone.

Most of Sunday’s scenarios favor Tottenham. If they win or draw Everton, they will finish 17th for the second consecutive season and avoid relegation. That’s also the case if fellow London Team West Ham loses against Leeds United.

However, if West Ham beats Leeds and Tottenham loses, the club is headed down—triggering a financial disaster.

Tottenham already has about $1.2 billion in debt, and being relegated would also mean sponsors exiting and losing sizable Premier League payouts. Even as Spurs came in 17th last season and barely missed relegation, the club still took home close to £128 million in Premier League payouts. In the Championship, meanwhile, most clubs received about £11 million, with recently relegated teams earning up to about £49 million in parachute payments from the Premier League.

Whichever unlucky one of Tottenham or West Ham will join J.J. Watt’s Burnley and Wolverhampton in the EFL Championship next year. They’ll face teams including newly promoted Lincoln City FC, Tom Brady’s Birmingham City FC, and media darling Wrexham, which did not achieve a historic fourth straight promotion.

Moving Up

Two teams joining the Premier League next season are already known, Coventry City and Ed Sheeran’s Ipswich Town. The third will be decided by a playoff final at Wembley Stadium on Saturday—the annual richest single game in world sports because of the difference between playing in the Premier League and Championship.

The buildup to the game has devolved into a farce. 

Southampton was caught watching and filming opponents’ training sessions and eventually admitted to spying on at least three other teams ahead of matches this season. The EFL kicked the Saints out of the playoff final and sent Middlesbrough to play Hull City in their place. 

The winner will clinch the final spot in next year’s Premier League and likely increase their revenues by hundreds of millions of dollars.