Another week, another prominent financial analyst detailing the extremely high stakes of the NFL’s upcoming rights renegotiations.
After Bank of America Securities recently warned of the elevated financial risk for each of the league’s incumbent linear rights holders, Guggenheim similarly said in a note Tuesday that the league is well positioned to increase its rights fees significantly beyond the more than $10 billion it currently gets annually.
In particular, Guggenheim pointed to the NBA, which elevated its cost-per-viewer-hour basis to $3.55 in its new set of domestic media rights with Amazon, ESPN, and NBC—collectively worth $77 billion over 11 years, though the firm’s calculation does omit some additional included rights in those deals such as the WNBA, League Pass, and international distribution. Comparatively, NFL games in 2025 commanded a cost per viewer hour of just $1.20 in its current deals, with the disparity from the NBA only growing starker as the NFL posted its best regular-season viewership since 1989.
“The higher cost of the NBA rights on a per-viewer-hour basis is informative but not definitive in the context of increased value potential for NFL rights,” Guggenheim said. “Either the NBA partners overpaid significantly relative to performance or the NFL should drive significantly more long-term value to partners than is implied at current rates.”
That, along with the NFL’s continued status as by far the most-watched programming in U.S. television, will drive “significant cost increases” in the next set of rights deals, Guggenheim said.
“Partners will likely pursue aggressive monetization through affiliate rate increases, station revenue, and advertising pricing, with the majority of these costs passed through to consumers,” the firm said.
Market Moves
The NFL has a contractual opt-out with most of its rights holders after the 2029 season, but given the size and complexity of the contracts, talks are expected to begin in earnest this year. Before Super Bowl LX last month, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell said the league will be looking to maximize both reach and revenue in new pacts.
“What we focus on is ‘How do we reach the broadest number of people, on every broadcast? How do we make an event out of that?’” Goodell said in response to a Front Office Sports question. “We select our partners in part for that reason. Economics are obviously part of that, the value that’s created. But at the end of the day, we want partners who are going to broaden our audience.”
Raising the pressure further is a small package of games already on the market. The NFL regained control of four games annually amid its complex and newly closed equity deal with ESPN parent company Disney. The league is shopping that inventory now, and that will provide an updated sense of what both linear and streaming networks are willing to pay.
Guggenheim also expects two other key outcomes from the coming negotiations, and as soon as the 2027 season: a further reduction in the number of games scheduled in Sunday afternoon windows as the league continues to create even more standalone windows, and a potential staggering of the timing of some future rights deals, veering from the current, more unified structure.
“The NFL is not looking to kill television,” Guggenheim said. “The league is looking to maximize value and grow global popularity, while maintaining a strong connection with its existing fan base by providing consumer choice. … A strong renewal with longstanding Sunday afternoon partners would set a foundation for league revenue growth well into the next decade and provide an early look at the incremental value potential.”
