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Polymarket’s long-awaited U.S. comeback may have been delayed due to a technical issue caused by the federal government shutdown, sources tell Front Office Sports.
On Sept. 30, the crypto-based prediction-markets platform appeared primed to reenter the American market, when it self-certified sports and other event contracts with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)—a final regulatory step toward launching legally in the U.S. The government shut down the next day, Oct. 1. Under the CFTC’s shutdown plan, the “vast majority” of its operations “will cease.”
The self-certification of sports event contracts comes as the legality of those offerings remains in question. But legal murkiness is not why Polymarket remains on the sidelines in the U.S.
Under CFTC rules, the agency typically has one business day to object to a self-certification before a contract can go live. Because Polymarket’s filings landed the day before the shutdown, that single business day never technically occurred. The review window is effectively paused until the shutdown ends. As of Wednesday, the shutdown entered its 42nd day.
“100% yes,” one legal expert who previously worked at the CFTC told FOS when asked whether the shutdown could be why Polymarket has yet to relaunch.
“Either the shutdown is the reason, or at the very least would be an obstacle,” said another legal expert who is a former longtime CFTC attorney.
Representatives for Polymarket, including its general counsel, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
An email sent to a representative for the CFTC returned the following message: “Hello, I am in the office today, however, due to a lapse in federal government funding, the law requires that I respond only to emails that relate to emergency matters involving an imminent threat to the safety of human life or the protection of property.”
Polymarket had previously been barred from operating in the U.S. since 2022 under a settlement with the Joe Biden–era CFTC. Under that settlement, Polymarket agreed to pay a $1.4 million civil penalty and wind down the markets that did not comply with CFTC rules. At that time, it wasn’t sports event contracts that got the company in trouble; it was offerings allowing users to put money on who would win the presidential election. While Polymarket was not allowed to operate in the U.S. for years and has not yet relaunched in the U.S., users in the country have reportedly found workarounds, such as using a VPN.
After Trump’s return to office, the company spent much of this summer teasing a return to the U.S. market. Founder Shayne Coplan said July 16 that a federal probe into the company had been dropped. Less than a week later, Polymarket announced the purchase of federally regulated exchange QCX. In August, it began a marketing blitz that promised users would be able to “legally trade football” in all 50 states “this fall.”
On Sept. 3, the CFTC announced it would not take enforcement action against QCX, which Coplan celebrated as giving the company the “green light to go live” in the U.S.
However, more than two months later—even after Polymarket secured up to $2 billion from the operator of the New York Stock Exchange—the platform’s U.S. waiting list still says it’s “coming soon.”
The longer the wait, the more challenging, and crowded, the environment will be when Polymarket finally returns. The company has already missed out on 10 weeks of U.S. users trading on NFL games; its primary competitor, Kalshi, added touchdown props, over/unders, and more ahead of football season and sees hundreds of millions of dollars traded on sports each weekend.
Meanwhile, traditional sports betting giants DraftKings and FanDuel are preparing prediction-markets platforms of their own; together, they hold a sports betting industry market share of more than 65% and handle tens of billions of dollars of wagers each year, far surpassing volume on prediction markets, for now. Barron’s forecasts the prediction-markets sector could grow from about $1.4 billion in annual volume to more than $95 billion by 2035.
Plus, President Donald Trump’s social media platform is getting in on the game through an “exclusive” deal with Crypto.com. Other companies competing in the prediction-markets world include PrizePicks, Robinhood, Underdog, and Novig.
Polymarket appears unperturbed. The company continues to heavily market and tease its U.S. return. It remains very popular in the roughly 180 countries in which it is available. It and Kalshi are official partners of the NHL, and Google will soon start integrating Polymarket and Kalshi data.
Despite the shutdown-induced delay, Polymarket has plenty of opportunity. And the shutdown may be nearing its end, meaning Polymarket’s U.S. reentry truly could be imminent. One industry executive says the prediction-markets battle is still in its early days.
“The marathon has started,” the executive recently told FOS. “But we’re only at mile marker five.”
