The Trumps Are All In on Prediction Markets

President Donald Trump’s social media platform is getting into prediction markets through an “exclusive” deal with Crypto.com that will include sports event contracts. It represents the third prediction-markets platform that the president’s son, Donald Trump Jr., is connected to—following agreements with Kalshi and Polymarket.

The new platform from Truth Social will be called Truth Predict and offer event contracts on everything from political elections and commodity prices to “events across all major sports leagues,” according to a statement. The platform will be available through an “exclusive arrangement” with a unit of Crypto.com that is federally registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Sports event contracts have generated particular controversy because they appear so similar to sports betting, which is regulated on a state-by-state basis in the U.S. Yet Trump Media & Technology Group—the parent company of Truth Social—intends to offer them, with beta testing expected to begin “in the near future,” followed by a “full launch in the United States,” and later a global launch “once all the requisite requirements are met,” the company’s statement said.

President Trump is the largest shareholder of Trump Media with a roughly 53% stake, although last December he transferred all of his shares into a revocable trust controlled by Trump Jr., his eldest son. Trump Jr. is also a director on the board for Trump Media.

Trump Jr. has significant involvement in the world of prediction markets—and it’s only growing. In January, he was announced as a strategic advisor to Kalshi—the same month the company launched its first sports event contracts. In August, it was revealed Trump Jr., through his investment firm 1789 Capital, had invested in Polymarket (Kalshi’s direct competitor) and would join the company’s advisory board.

Then, a spokesperson for Trump Jr. told Front Office Sports, “This doesn’t change anything regarding Don’s role with Kalshi. Don is committed to supporting the prediction market industry as a whole and couldn’t be more excited about his new role with Polymarket.” That spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment Tuesday.

The deal announced Tuesday isn’t the first agreement between Trump Media and Crypto.com. In late August, those two entities and a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) called Yorkville Acquisition Corp. said they were entering into a deal to establish a business called Trump Media Group CRO Strategy Inc., which was described as a “digital asset treasury company” that will focus on acquiring, and potentially trading, a cryptocurrency token called cronos. 

In Tuesday’s announcement, Trump Media said Truth Social users who have “Truth gems,” a digital currency earned by interacting on the platform, will be able to convert those into cronos, which can then be used on event contracts.

Trump’s social media platform is entering prediction markets as competition is ratcheting up. DraftKings last week agreed to spend up to $250 million to buy the Railbird Exchange platform, while FanDuel in August reached a deal with derivatives exchange CME Group; there, the sports betting giant also chose not to commit to sports event contracts.

Meanwhile, Kalshi—which is fighting multiple court battles over its sports offerings, including a new one it filed Monday against regulators in New York after receiving a cease-and-desist in that state—raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation earlier this month. Polymarket, which is expected to relaunch in the U.S. imminently after having been previously barred from operating in the country since 2022, will receive up to $2 billion from the operator of the New York Stock Exchange in a deal announced this month. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have reportedly received recent takeover interest.

Kalshi and Polymarket declined to comment, and a representative for Trump Media did not immediately respond to a request to comment.

Shares of Trump Media were up less than 1% Tuesday afternoon.