There won’t be a record free-agent deal again this offseason for Major League Baseball, like during the past years, but the upcoming Hot Stove season will still be impactful for the sport on multiple fronts.
The latest free-agent class doesn’t have a marquee talent along the lines of Shohei Ohtani, who signed with the Dodgers for $700 million after the 2023 season, or Juan Soto, who signed with the Mets last December in an unprecedented pact worth $765 million over 15 years. Still, there are multiple All-Star-caliber bats and arms who are available and will almost certainly sign nine-figure contracts, and in some cases, approach $500 million deals. The forthcoming market will also serve as an early indicator of the effect of an uncertain labor situation on club spending.
Among the key players who are leading the free-agent market:
- Kyle Tucker: The Cubs outfielder battled injuries this year and was briefly benched in pursuit of a “reset.” Tucker, however, remains arguably the top talent on the market, and since he won’t turn 29 until January, he is younger than most other leading figures in the market.
- Kyle Schwarber: The Phillies designated hitter had another standout season, and he could finish second in National League Most Valuable Player voting behind Ohtani. Schwarber will turn 33 in March and has said he has greatly enjoyed his time in Philadelphia.
- Alex Bregman: After seeing a more limited free-agent market last year amid declining performance in Houston, the third baseman largely returned to form this year in Boston, though he grappled with injuries limiting him to 114 games.
- Pete Alonso: Another player who saw relatively limited market interest a year ago, Alonso signed a two-year, $54 million deal in February with the Mets that included an opt-out after the 2025 season. He then posted another productive season in which he became the club’s all-time leader in home runs. Alonso is a fan favorite in New York, and club owner Steve Cohen will be under considerable pressure to not let him leave.
- Bo Bichette: The Blue Jays infielder has been a cornerstone figure for the team as it’s risen into a championship contender, but he has battled multiple injuries during the last two years.
The qualifying offer value this year will be worth a MLB-record $22.025 million. That offer, if made to free agents, gives a team a compensatory draft pick if the player signs elsewhere, but it also can complicate the player’s market options. Historically, players have accepted the qualifying offer less than 10% of the time. Some players, such as Alonso and Bregman, have already received such offers, and they cannot be tendered again.
Players can begin to sign deals with new teams later this week after an initial quiet period. The free-agent market, however, will likely take a bit longer to develop, as teams have until later this month to render decisions on qualifying offers and tendering contracts to players unsigned for 2026, including their arbitration-eligible ones.
Labor Matters
Amid a darkening labor situation between MLB and the MLB Players Association, this winter will provide initial clues on how clubs view the matter.
The current labor deal expires in December 2026. Though MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has said that no management proposals have been finalized, players fear that owners will seek a salary cap that the union has long resisted.
If free-agent dollars become more constricted this winter, it could be seen as a sign that some teams believe a long work stoppage is possible.
Japanese Market
After Dodgers stars such as Ohtani, Roki Sasaki, and World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto played key roles in the club’s repeat title this year, the Japanese market is expected to be meaningful again this winter.
Several players from Nippon Professional Baseball could be posted to MLB clubs. Foremost among them is slugger Munetaka Murakami. The Yakult Swallows infielder is a two-time Central League MVP and won Japan’s Triple Crown in 2022 at just 22 years old.
