The NBA officially has a new draft lottery system.
On Thursday, the league’s owners approved the “3-2-1” system that will begin with the 2027 draft. Owners voted 29–1 in favor of the new approach, ESPN reported, with Grizzlies owner Robert Pera being the lone dissenter. The new approach further flattens the lottery odds in an attempt to curb tanking after commissioner Adam Silver said this season’s actions went too far.
“Are we seeing behavior that is worse this year than we’ve seen in recent memory?” Silver said in February. “Yes, is my view.”
The new system expands the lottery from 14 to 16 teams, giving two more franchises the chance to land the No. 1 pick each offseason. It also adds a “relegation zone” that would give the three bottom teams record-wise worse lottery odds than the teams directly above them in the standings.
The “3-2-1 lottery” name stems from the number of lottery balls each group will receive in the new system. Teams that miss the playoffs and play-in tournament (but don’t finish with a bottom-three record) will each receive three lottery balls. The bottom three teams—the “relegation zone”—will get just two lottery balls, but their picks will be no lower than 12th.
Play-in tournament teams that are the No. 9 and 10 seeds will receive two lottery balls apiece; teams in the game pitting the No. 7 and 8 seeds will each get one. The new system will also prevent a team from getting the No. 1 pick in consecutive years or top-five picks in three straight drafts. Teams won’t be able to protect their first-round picks in the No. 12 to 15 slots under the new model.
The Grizzlies have the most to lose from the new system, which is likely why Pera voted against it. The team owns the most favorable of the Jazz, Timberwolves, or Cavaliers’ 2027 first-round picks as a result of the Jaren Jackson Jr. trade earlier this season. Utah will pick No. 2 in June’s draft after picking No. 5 a year ago, which means next year’s pick for the Grizzlies will be no higher than No. 6.
The lottery drawing could also be viewed in real time going forward. ESPN has reported that the league is considering televising the lottery next year instead of having its drawing room shortly before announcing the picks.
The new system will make it more difficult for the league’s worst teams—which arguably need talent injections the most—to land a high pick. Multiple league executives previously told Front Office Sports that their initial concern with the system was that the bottom three teams would share the same lottery odds as the No. 9 and 10 seeds. “That aspect doesn’t make sense to me,” one executive said.
The new-look lottery also includes a sunset clause that calls for the process to be reexamined before the 2030 draft. That means additional changes could be made to the lottery if the 3-2-1 system doesn’t properly combat tanking within the next three seasons. Silver recently said he will have additional power to punish teams for tanking, including taking away lottery balls and reordering the draft.
“We are going to fix it,” Silver said in March. “Full stop.”
