A surprising amount of competitive balance, and underperformance, across MLB is creating yet another highly muddled trade market.
With a little more than a month remaining before the Aug. 3 trade deadline, 15 MLB clubs are within six games of .500, and all but six across the league are within five games of a playoff spot entering Monday’s games.
Closely resembling the uncertain situation ahead of the 2025 trade deadline, this year’s situation involves many teams trying to determine whether they are buyers or sellers. That’s particularly true in the American League, where just four teams have winning records.
“I know our record is backwards, but apparently, this is infecting a whole bunch of other teams, too,” said Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Ellas. “I can’t explain it, and I wish we were arriving at [the trade deadline] in a much different way, and the context around that is unusual.”
The biggest prize on the market is likely Tigers ace Tarik Skubal. The two-time defending AL Cy Young Award winner is back in action, ahead of original projections, after missing five weeks following arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies from his left below. Skubal’s return, however, hasn’t changed the fortunes of a Tigers club that had big ambitions entering 2026 but has the next-to-worst record in the AL.
Skubal, meanwhile, is set to become a free agent after the season, and should the Tigers deal him now, they could be in position to receive a large package of prospects to aid in a rebuild.
Beyond the potential situation emerging in Detroit, several other underachieving clubs stand out as ones to watch as the trade deadline approaches. Among them:
- Angels. The long-struggling club fired GM Perry Minasian late last week, announced in a late Friday news dump, and brought in former Cardinals executive John Mozeliak as interim GM. Minasian had received a contract extension less than two years ago, but the accumulating losses since then prompted owner Arte Moreno and team president Molly Jolly to act.
- Giants. Between the large-scale trade last year for third baseman Rafael Devers and the botched execution for the team’s recent Pride Night, little has gone right for San Francisco under president of baseball operations Buster Posey. Currently standing 18 and a half games behind the archrival Dodgers, a selloff next month is likely.
- Mets. Changes are already emerging in Queens as the club last week fired manager Carlos Mendoza and traded pitcher David Peterson. President of baseball operations David Stearns is under his own pressure after a season-and-a-half of massive payrolls, trailing only the Dodgers, have yielded losing campaigns. “I don’t believe that our record on the field this year is indicative of some of the advancements that we’ve made in the organization, but clearly, our record is nowhere good enough,” Stearns said.
- Orioles. Back-to-back playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024 have given way to back-to-back disappointments in the two subsequent seasons. Baltimore’s once-heralded homegrown core, supplemented last winter by free-agent signing Pete Alonso, has not progressed to the next level. Still, Elias insists the Orioles are “right there,” are intending to be buyers, and “we’re going for it.”
- Red Sox. Boston, too, has already fired the manager the club started the season with, Alex Cora. Even after a weekend sweep of the hated Yankees under interim replacement Chad Tracy, the Red Sox are still in last place in the AL East division.
- Yankees. New York is still solidly in playoff position, but additional needs are quickly emerging in the wake of superstar Aaron Judge’s rib injury. The Yankees have lost seven of nine as the timetable for the slugger’s return remains uncertain.
Last year’s clouded situation ultimately gave way to a highly active trade deadline in which all-stars such as Carlos Correa, Mason Miller, and Eugenio Suarez changed teams. A similar market could very well emerge in 2026, with a large crop of teams just one hot or cold streak away from becoming buyers or sellers.
“We’ve been clear all along: we’re hoping to be competitive this year,” said Twins GM Jeremy Zoll of the sub-.500 club. “I think we’re right in the thick of it and want to let this next stretch play out and give the group every chance we can to make that a reality.”
