MLB’s Largest Payrolls Could Swell Further at Trade Deadline

One of the most fraught times of the year for many baseball operations executives has arrived, as the MLB trade deadline is now two weeks away and teams will need to determine whether they are buyers or sellers. 

As the July 31 deadline approaches, all but three American League teams are currently within five games of a playoff spot, and all but five in the National League are within 5.5 games. The creation of a sixth playoff spot in each league in 2022 once again has left many teams just one moderate hot or cold streak from being in or out of the playoff picture.

That, in turn, has complicated potential dealmaking, but it has also raised the stakes significantly for the initial game schedule coming out of this week’s All-Star Game break.

“It’s hard to ignore, for sure, I try to stay off my phone as much as possible,” said Orioles All-Star Ryan O’Hearn, who is a potential trade piece given the team’s disappointing seasons and upcoming free agency this offseason. “The Orioles right now are my team. In my mind, we’re trying to make a miraculous comeback. And if a trade happens, when it gets close to the trade deadline or whatever it may be, that’s the nature of the business.”

Market Moves

For many of the sport’s established powers—namely the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees—the upcoming deadline is expected to provide a clearer window to add talent. Those three clubs, representing baseball’s three largest luxury-tax payrolls, have each undergone midseason swoons and are looking for additional help. 

Fox Sports broadcaster Derek Jeter notably pointed to his former boss, Yankees GM Brian Cashman, as a likely buyer. 

“Cashman basically said he’s all in,” Jeter said in the network’s postgame coverage at Tuesday’s All-Star Game. “So I expect the Yankees to do something at the trade deadline.”

Boston, meanwhile, also suddenly looks like a buyer at the deadline. The team lost 7 of the first 10 games after trading Rafael Devers to the Giants last month, but it ripped off a 10-game winning streak before the break, a run that remains active, and holds the AL’s second wild-card position. 

Among the potential sellers, the Diamondbacks are frequently eyed as a top candidate, as the club has regressed since a 2023 run to the World Series and was eliminated on the last day of the regular season last year. Top Arizona stars such as infielder Eugenio Suárez and Zac Gallen have been frequently mentioned as possible trade pieces.

The Braves, meanwhile, are not expected to begin a fire sale, despite a 42–53 record that is far below expectations. Atlanta still has much of its core locked up on more team-friendly contracts.