Skubal’s Elbow Surgery Puts Free-Agent Record in Doubt

The path for Tigers ace Tarik Skubal to reach a record-setting contract in free agency this offseason hit a major speed bump with the disclosure that he’ll need surgery on his pitching elbow.

Skubal, the two-time defending American League Cy Young Award winner, will have arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow. A specific timetable for his return has not been disclosed, but other pitchers who have had similar procedures have been out of action for two to three months. As a result, Skubal will likely be out until at least after the All-Star Game break in mid-July, and perhaps until around the Aug. 3 trade deadline.

“I think the length of the rehab is probably just getting your spring training buildup again, getting your volume up,” Skubal said. “But the procedure itself I think is pretty simple as far as what I’ve been explained.”

The financial implications of the current situation could be significant. After another dominant season in 2025, Skubal won an arbitration decision in February that awarded him a $32 million salary for this year—breaking all prior records for MLB players in the arbitration system.

With that decision in place, Skubal, 29, had been widely seen as a strong candidate to set a free-agent record this fall for a pitcher. The current contract milestone for a free-agent pitcher is the Dodgers’ 12-year, $325 million deal with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, signed in late 2023, and prior projections of a Skubal deal had hovered around $400 million. 

The latest injury, however, complicates that outlook, and any suitor team will be closely watching Skubal’s health and effectiveness on the mound when he returns before tendering anything close to an unprecedented contract offer. Skubal, meanwhile, is represented by super agent Scott Boras, who undoubtedly will be pushing hard to preserve the pitcher’s market value.

“The fans in Detroit want the Tigers to build the Tarik barrack,” Boras said last fall in one of his trademark puns. 

Skubal was also part of the U.S. team in the wildly successful World Baseball Classic, but his workload was carefully managed and he threw in just one game before returning to spring training. In the current MLB season, Skubal has a 3–2 record with a 2.70 earned run average. 

Hanging On?

The Tigers, meanwhile, will need to continue competitively with their best player on the injured list. The team is 18–18 entering Tuesday’s game, tied with the archrival Guardians atop the AL Central division. The Tigers’ .500 record is happening despite having the second-best run differential in the AL. 

Beyond the threat from Cleveland, Detroit is also grappling with a resurgent White Sox club that is just a half-game behind in the standings, thanks in part to the exploits of first-year slugger Munetaka Murakami, who is tied with Yankees superstar Aaron Judge for the MLB home-run lead.

“It’s a big test,” Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said of Skubal’s absence. “You can’t deny it’s a big blow, but we’re not canceling the season. We’re going to play the games.”