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A strong start to their inaugural season has Portland Fire GM Vanja Černivec thinking about the playoffs.
Černivec told Front Office Sports that the Fire are “100%” aiming to make the postseason this year.
“We definitely don’t want to start a franchise thinking about getting the number one draft pick next year,” she said, despite the allure of securing a top draft pick in a stacked 2027 class.
Portland (7–9) sits at 10th in the standings, a game behind the Los Angeles Sparks for the eighth and final playoff spot.
A top draft pick in 2027 could result in one of the most highly regarded prospects in recent memory: USC guard JuJu Watkins, the projected top pick. But Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo and Texas forward Madison Booker could also be immediate game-changers.
Recent drafts have shown that top rookies can make an immediate impact on winning teams. The Fire witnessed it firsthand Monday night when they faced 2026 No. 2 pick Olivia Miles, who is already an MVP candidate in her rookie year with the Minnesota Lynx.
But Černivec said there are “too many” variables that come into play when chasing a top pick.
A franchise must first win the WNBA draft lottery to get the top pick. This year, the odds will be spread out among seven lottery teams instead of five due to the two new expansion franchises.
The team with the worst cumulative record over two seasons will have a 35% chance at the top pick. The Dallas Wings had a 42% chance last year—and won.
It’s also unclear Watkins will even be available. She sat out last season after tearing her ACL and has the option to return to college for the 2027–28 season.
The Valkyries Model
Černivec knows how an expansion team can defy the odds and make the postseason in its first year. She was the Golden State Valkyries’ VP of basketball operations last year when they surprised the WNBA by making the playoffs and finishing with a winning record (23–21).
Golden State preached winning immediately. Head coach Natalie Nakase said owner Joe Lacob challenged her with a five-year timeline to win a title.
Černivec said the Valkyries are the “standard” for all expansion franchises, but said it’s difficult to “copy-paste” their exact success formula. She cited several differences from last season, including having to join alongside another expansion franchise in Toronto and the severely condensed offseason due to CBA negotiations.
But the residue from her Valkyries tenure can be seen in Portland.
The Fire have built around international talent. Leading scorers Carla Leite (France) and Bridget Carleton (Canada) are foreign-born, they’ve relied on rotation players Nyadiew Puoch (Australia) and Luisa Geiselsöder (Germany), and their first-ever rookie draft pick, Iyana Martín Carrión, is a draft-and-stash player from Spain.
It’s no surprise that Černivec, who is originally from Slovenia, sees the potential of international players in the WNBA. Before joining Golden State, she worked as an international scout for the NBA’s Bulls and then as the GM for the London Lions in the U.K.
Finding international talent has become a focus for many rebuilding teams like the Connecticut Sun and Washington Mystics. One benefit of prioritizing international players is that draft eligibility rules are different than in the NCAA: International players can be drafted by 20, while NCAA players must either be 22 or a college graduate.
Drafting younger players allows teams more time to directly develop talent. It’s why freshmen tend to be the top picks in the NBA draft.
The Fire also banked on breakout seasons from their expansion draft picks to help them compete, and several players have delivered, especially Leite.
Leite, who was on the Valkyries last year, is having a breakout campaign. At 22 years old, the Fire’s starting point guard has potential to turn into one of their franchise cornerstones—just like Veronica Burton for Golden State. Burton, who was cut multiple times, was the 2025 Most Improved Player and will likely be an All-Star this season.
Other Fire veterans who have had breakout campaigns are Bridget Carleton, Megan Gustafson, and Emily Engstler.
“We’re a bunch of overlooked players,” Gustafson, an eight-year veteran, said last month after a Fire win. “I’ve never really been respected as a basketball player until I got here.”
A strong first season may also help Portland with free agents.
Golden State signed All-Star forward Gabby Williams in free agency, and she said signed because of the team’s potential to win.
“There were two or three key factors in making my decision, and number one was: ‘Where am I going to win?’” Williams said in her introductory press conference. “Even though this is a newer team, I strongly feel the competitiveness and the want to win here.”
The 2027 free agency class will not have the same chaos as this past year—but it will still include some big names including Napheesa Collier, Kelsey Mitchell, Jackie Young, and Kelsey Plum.
