Cooper Flagg’s Impact Looms Large as NBA Draft Lottery Odds Set

The NBA season wrapped up Sunday and the playoffs are right around the corner. However, there will be attention paid to the teams missing the postseason that are vying for the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft—and the right to select Cooper Flagg.

While the Duke freshman isn’t held in the same regard as 2023 No. 1 pick Victor Wembanyama, he is still considered a franchise-altering star. As the most-hyped American prospect since 2019 No. 1 pick Zion Williamson (and possibly since Anthony Davis in 2012), Flagg would provide a boost in brand and sponsorship appeal.

Feeling Lucky?

Here are the odds of the bottom 10 teams for the No. 1 pick now that the 2024–2025 regular season has ended:

• Jazz, Wizards, Hornets: 14%
• Pelicans: 12.5%
• Sixers: 10.5%
• Nets: 9%
• Raptors: 7.5% 
• Spurs: 6%
• Rockets (via Suns): 3.8%
• Blazers: 3.7%

There are still four spots in the lottery up for grabs due to the Play-In Tournament that starts Tuesday. The four teams that miss the playoffs following the tournament will get the last four spots in the lottery, which comes with No. 1 pick odds that range from 0.5% to 2%.

Intriguing Landing Spots

Three of the four franchises with the best lottery odds aren’t considered big markets, but they each have a recent All-Star on their roster to pair with Flagg that would bring attention to their cities next season (Utah: Lauri Markkanen; Charlotte: LaMelo Ball; New Orleans: Zion Williamson).

As for Washington, acquiring the 18-year-old could supercharge owner Ted Leonsis’s plan of turning the DMV into a “supercity,” especially considering the Commanders, their NFL counterparts, were rejuvenated after they drafted quarterback Jayden Daniels last year.

There are several teams that could, assuming health, allow Flagg to compete in the playoffs immediately—and that would likely help NBA ratings, given the high-profile pairings. That includes Philadelphia with 2023 MVP Joel Embiid and San Antonio with Wembanyama. 

Toronto is also a noteworthy possibility, particularly the irony of one of the best U.S. prospects in a decade playing for a team based in Canada. Flagg, however, would be close to his home state of Maine.

The No. 2-seeded Rockets and post-Luka Dončić Mavericks could also land Flagg, though their odds of winning the lottery are less than 5%. (Dallas could also advance through the Play-In Tournament and miss the lottery.) However, there have been recent examples of long-shots winning the No. 1 pick, including last year with the Hawks, who made the 2024 Play-In Tournament and had a 3% chance of winning the lottery.