A well-known aphorism in the TV sports world is that network executives would sell their souls for Cowboys games. But the Chiefs’ sustained run of Super Bowl excellence—combined with the Taylor Swift Effect—is changing the game. Patrick Mahomes’s star power and Travis Kelce’s sizzling tabloid romance with Swift are turning Kansas City into America’s Team when it comes to TV appeal.
Don’t believe it? I have trouble accepting it myself. But as we near the quarter pole of the 2024 season, the defending Super Bowl champions hold a clear edge over the Cowboys, who last won a title in ‘96.
Between them, Chiefs and the Cowboys have played in the five most-watched games this season. But the 3–0 Chiefs have appeared in the league’s two most-watched telecasts—and three of the top five. They were: NBC’s season-opening broadcast of Chiefs–Ravens in Week 1 (28 million viewers); CBS’s telecast of Chiefs–Bengals in Week 2 (27.9 million), and NBC’s coverage of Chiefs–Falcons in Week 3 (24.5 million).
The 2–2 Cowboys have played in two of the five most-watched games: Fox’s Week 3 telecast of Cowboys–Ravens (27.3 million) and Tom Brady’s hotly-anticipated debut as Fox’s No. 1 NFL analyst in Week 1 (23.9 million). But the Chiefs are poised for another huge audience this Sunday against the Chargers in CBS’s late afternoon time slot. The Cowboys beat the struggling Giants on Thursday Night Football, where streaming audiences are smaller.
As my Front Office Sports colleague David Rumsey reported this week, each of the Chiefs’ three games this season have set TV records:
- Kansas City’s season-opening 27–20 victory over Baltimore drew a record NFL kickoff game audience on NBC.
- The same network’s telecast of the Chiefs’ 22–17 victory over the Falcons was NBC’s most-watched Week 3 Sunday Night Football game.
- The Chiefs’ last-second 26–25 win over the Bengals in Week 2 was the most-watched September NFL game on CBS since 1998.
Even during commercial breaks, you can’t escape the Chiefs. Every other TV spot seems to feature Mahomes or Kelce. Even head coach Andy Reid is being featured! But there could be trouble in paradise. With only eight catches for 69 yards and no touchdowns this season, critics are wondering if Kelce spending much of his offseason with Swift has caught up to him. As analyst Todd McShay said on The Ryen Russillo Podcast: “He’s been jet-setting around with the most famous person, probably in the entire world.”
The Chiefs’ ascension is a shift from the 2023 season, when the Cowboys still ranked as the NFL’s top TV draw. I checked with Lauren Pabst at Nielsen, who compared Chiefs and Cowboys telecasts from last season. Here’s what she found.
Compare and Contrast
Dallas games (in a season when they were 12–5) averaged 24.5 million million viewers last season, versus 22.3 million for (11–6) Kansas City. Cowboys-Commanders on Thanksgiving Day was the most-watched regular season game by far, averaging 41.8 million viewers. But in prime time, the 11-6 Chiefs were No. 1, averaging 23.4 million viewers versus 21.5 million for the ‘Boys. Overall, the Cowboys played in the first- and third-most-watched regular season games of the ‘23 season; the Chiefs only posted one game in the top five (the fifth most-watched game).
Several factors drive the shift in viewing habits. Start with the Chiefs’ on-field success. The charismatic Mahomes is the face of the NFL, leading the Chiefs to three Super Bowl wins and four AFC championships in the last five seasons. After six straight AFC championship appearances, Mahomes, Kelce, and Andy Reid are as familiar to TV viewers as Tom Brady and Petyon Manning once were.
“With the reach of the NFL, market size is less relevant than having teams with sustained success and marketable stars,” notes Andrew Brandt, an ex-Packers executive who is now executive director of Villanova University’s Moorad Center. “The Swift Effect has something to do with it—but we are almost guaranteed excitement with Mahomes, and Andy Reid and the team have become comfortable staples for national viewing.”
Swift (who’s attended two Chiefs games this season) continues to attract new viewers, notes former CBS executive turned media consultant LeslieAnne Wade.
“There remains a ‘Taylor Swift Effect.’ Teen girls, women 18-24, and even women over 35, represent elevated viewership in large percentages. It’s a real opportunity for the NFL,” she tells Front Office Sports. “Many of these women and more are recognized as new fans influencing appointment television for families. Not only are more eyes focused on the league but this effect also presents new targets for new advertisers.”
The Cowboys’ Thanksgiving Day game against the Giants should pull a monster number. But barring changes from flexible scheduling, Kansas City is poised to play in “slightly more marquee windows” than Dallas this season, according to Douglas Pucci of Programming Insider. “KC’s definitely the top draw since Mahomes (became) their quarterback,” he says.
Yes, the Cowboys still boast a massive national fan base. Yes, they remain easily the most valuable team in the league from a financial standpoint. But the luster has rusted from Dallas’s vaunted star.
The Dallas Decline
The 2–2 Cowboys are off to their worst start since head coach Mike McCarthy [no relation] took over in 2020. They’ve suffered two straight home losses. Their defense was one of the worst in NFL history over the first three weeks before limiting the Giants. Dallas hasn’t won a playoff game since the ‘22 season, when they beat the Buccaneers in the wild-card round. The NFC East champs were routed by the Packers in a wild-card game last season. They haven’t reached the NFC Championship Game since that fateful 1995 season that led to their most recent Super Bowl. In short, the franchise is still living off the glory days of Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, and Michael Irvin winning three out of four Super Bowls from 1992–1995.
But don’t cry for owner Jerry Jones. The Cowboys are the league’s most valuable franchise, with a valuation of $11 billion, according to CNBC. And the Chiefs? They’re way down in 18th place, with a valuation of $6.07 billion.
Life is good for the NFL. The country’s most popular and powerful league is off to its best TV start in nine years, averaging 18.6 million viewers per game through Week 3. That’s up 10% over the same point last season. Since kickoff of the new season, 18 of the top 20 TV shows have been NFL games.
