Where Do Manchester City and English Soccer Go From Here?

Friday’s report that Manchester City has been found guilty of 114 of the Premier League’s 115 allegations of financial breaches rocked the soccer world.

The club is accused of skirting both English and European financial fair play rules between 2009 and 2018, including by disguising ownership money as sponsorship revenue and failing to properly disclose payments to players and coaches. Manchester City has denied the allegations for years, and maintains the same stance it had when the Premier League first announced the allegations and referred them to an independent commission in 2023.

Part of the reason why the decision from the independent commission is so significant is that the consequences could be drastic and of unprecedented scale.

But it’s not clear how City will be sanctioned, or when.

The Athletic broke the news, which has not yet been confirmed by the Premier League or Manchester City. The club said in a statement that “significant elements” of the process are yet to be completed. The club will likely appeal the official decision and any punishments weighed against it.

Since 2008, the club has been owned by Abu Dhabi United Group—the holding company of City Football Group, which was formed in 2013. The new ownership has brought Manchester City to the heights of English and European soccer, winning eight Premier League titles, four FA Cups, and one Champions League trophy since 2008.

The man at the top is Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, an Abu Dhabi royal family member and the United Arab Emirates’s vice president. UAE officials have warned the U.K. that relations between the two countries could worsen with an adverse verdict in the case, according to Bloomberg.

How big could the punishment be?

Manchester City could face fines, points deductions, relegation, or even expulsion from the Premier League. Certain titles could also be retroactively altered; City won the Premier League three times between 2009 and 2018.

Other clubs have faced points deductions and fines for financial breaches in recent years. Chelsea notably accepted a fine and transfer ban but avoided a points deduction after a successful appeal. Other clubs, including Everton and Nottingham Forest, lost points, but their breaches were far less severe—and numerous—than Manchester City’s alleged actions.

Other clubs could also pile on. The Premier League allows clubs to sue one another to recoup losses suffered because another team broke financial rules.

Everton is currently appealing a ruling that ordered it must pay Burnley roughly $46 million, because if the punishments levied against Everton for financial breaches had come during the season those actions were committed, Burnley would’ve avoided relegation.

Teams could do the same with Manchester City, alleging the club blocked them from winning the Premier League or advancing to European competition—or that their relegation would’ve been avoided if the punishments had come sooner. Four clubs have reportedly already served City with legal notices: Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, and Tottenham Hotspur.

“So…… Let’s talk,” former longtime Manchester United goalkeeper David de Gea posted following the news. “How many Premier League titles have I won then?” (United finished second to its Manchester rivals in 2012, 2018, and 2021.)

When would this happen?

After five matches this season, City sits alone atop the Premier League table. If a punishment or points deduction were to come during the season, it would shake up the entire table. But if punishments don’t come until after the season, other clubs could protest how City’s results impacted theirs, as Burnley did. City also won its Champions League opener.

The official decision from the independent commission has yet to come out. According to BBC Sport, the ruling was sent to “club executives” last week.

But whenever it does, City is ready to fight it. Club chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak said in a letter on Saturday that City’s “confidence and intent in proving the Club’s innocence is just as strong as when this began.”

“It has taken eight years to get here — and it’s going to take a lot more time,” City Football Group CEO Ferran Soriano said in a meeting with soccer executives Monday, according to The Times.

Because of a standing agreement among Premier League clubs, matters between teams must be handled domestically. City therefore cannot take its case to the Court of Arbitration for Sport, which helped the club overturn a two-year European competition ban from UEFA in 2020, also linked to financial breaches. (City was still fined for not cooperating with the investigation, something the Premier League has also alleged.)

Instead, an appeal will go to yet another independent panel for review. Given the complexities of the case, it’s unclear how long the appeal would take.

How could this impact American soccer?

City Football Group owns MLS club New York City FC.

NYCFC is currently building a new stadium set to open next year in Queens, New York. The NWSL’s Gotham FC will share the stadium starting in 2028. The club’s secondary team, NYCFC II, will be the first to move and rebrand under the new MLS Next Pro deal with private equity firm KKR.

A spokesperson for MLS did not respond to a question from Front Office Sports about whether the league will launch an investigation into City Football Group’s conduct as owners of New York City FC. A spokesperson for NYCFC also did not respond to a request for comment.