How Latest Conference Realignment Will Impact College Football Playoff

Conference realignment continues to wreak havoc among non–Power 4 schools early into the 2024 college football season.

Monday was another wild chapter of the saga filled with official announcements, reports, and, of course, rumors. The landscape isn’t done shifting, but here’s what we know about where things stand for the lower half of FBS programs:

• The Pac-12 is still searching for more members. The only official moves announced so far are Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, and San Diego State joining Oregon State and Washington State in 2026. At least two more members are needed by 2026 for the Pac-12 to retain its FBS status. Late Monday, multiple reports indicated Utah State had accepted a bid to leave the Mountain West and join the Pac-12.
• The American Athletic Conference is keeping four key programs. Memphis, South Florida, Tulane, and UTSA made a statement Monday committing to stay in the AAC, after reports that the Pac-12 was targeting some or all of those schools. The conference then posted that all 15 members had committed to stick around. 
• The Mountain West is hoping to thwart more departures to the Pac-12. Late Monday, the conference was working on a written commitment from existing members to remain in the conference. UNLV and Utah State were said to be top expansion targets for the Pac-12, according to Action Network. Air Force had been linked to the Pac-12, in addition to the AAC. 
• Gonzaga isn’t joining the Pac-12 yet. There was some confusion Monday about the Bulldogs (who don’t have a football team) joining the conference in all other sports. A source told Front Office Sports college reporter Amanda Christovich that Gonzaga has not received a formal offer to join the Pac-12 or put in an application. There have been discussions and interest, however.

College Football Playoff Bid at Stake

How the conference realignment dust settles outside the Power 4 will have a major impact on the expanded, 12-team College Football Playoff.

As currently constructed, the top-five-ranked conference champions in the country receive automatic bids into the playoff. The Pac-12, Mountain West, and AAC are fighting for supremacy among the new Group of 6, and all likely envision a scenario where their conference champion annually receives that final automatic postseason bid. While unlikely in most years, another non–Power 4 school (conference champion or not) could still make the CFP if it were ranked high enough.

The CFP has not released its first official 2024 rankings. Boise State is currently the highest-ranked non–Power 4 team in the AP poll at No. 25.