Update (11/11): This story has been updated to reflect the Rutgers-Iowa total moving down to a consensus 27.5 from 28.
Iowa football has been a gold mine for college football betting unders this season; a team with a remarkably good defense and a historically bad offense is sure to produce consistently low game totals.
That trend will be put to the test on Saturday when the Hawkeyes face off against Rutgers with a consensus total of 27.5 — possibly the lowest over-under in college football history.
Betting data only goes back so far, but Action Networks pegs the total as the lowest it’s seen in at least 30 years, while ESPN says it’s the lowest total since at least 2000 and will be the first game in its database with an over-under of less than 30.
It’s not unwarranted: Iowa has gone under this number in its last three games, two of which — against Minnesota on Oct. 21 (31.5) and against Northwestern on Nov. 4 (30.5) — set the previous records for the lowest-ever total. The Hawkeyes, dead last in the nation in yards per game (225.3), sport a 2-7 over-under record this season.
Bettors are flocking to wager on the trend.
BetMGM tells Front Office Sports that Rutgers-Iowa is the most-bet total and under of the weekend; the under has garnered 63% of the bets and 58% of the handle at the sportsbook. Similarly, DraftKings reports that it’s the most-bet under of the weekend, and its data shows 60% of the tickets and 65% of the money on the under.
Caesars initially set its total at an eye-popping 27 — the lowest CFB total it has ever offered — which quickly attracted 61% of the bets and 74% of the handle on the over, prompting the book to elevate to the consensus 27.5.
Iowa’s horrific offense means the program will make significant personnel changes. The school has already announced that offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz, son of head coach Kirk Ferentz, will be out of the job after this season.
