Tuesday was a good day for Vegas.
France’s 2–0 semifinal loss to Spain eliminated one of the most bet-on teams in the World Cup from the tournament.
DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM told Front Office Sports that France was their biggest liability on outright World Cup winner bets. The public’s investment in France was seen in the betting activity for the semifinal; 94% of money was on France to qualify for the World Cup final at BetMGM, making Spain’s win a huge win for the sportsbook.
Spain’s shutout also had major implications on player prop bets. Mbappe has been the most bet “anytime goalscorer” in the tournament on DraftKings and BetMGM. The star attacker was far and away the most bet-on player for Tuesday’s match at BetMGM, with Mbappe to score being bet on five times more than any other player.
France’s elimination has also shifted the odds for the Golden Boot, which is awarded to the player who scores the most goals in the tournament. Messi is now the favorite at -175 on DraftKings, with Mbappe (+200) and Harry Kane (+900) having the next best odds. If Mbappe opts out of the third-place game, his World Cup would be over, meaning Messi would need only one goal to take sole possession of first place. That would be good news for the sportsbooks, with Mbappe having the most bets to win the award on DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM.
France had strong backing on prediction markets as well. On Polymarket, traders had $132 million in volume on France to win the World Cup. As prediction markets make money on transaction fees, they don’t specifically benefit from an individual team winning or losing. That said, the World Cup has clearly been a success for them, with Polymarket’s World Cup winner market having more than $4 billion in volume, while Kalshi’s has $1.1 billion.
Despite Tuesday’s result, bettors have won big during this year’s World Cup. A parlay featuring Mbappe, Messi, and Erling Haaland to score two plus goals cashed two separate times during the group stage. The parlays, which had odds ranging from +8000 to +13000 on various sportsbooks, cost the sportsbooks millions.
It’s Coming Home
The best outcome for sportsbooks is England winning the World Cup.
As of Tuesday, England had the lowest amount of money on it to win the tournament of any of the remaining teams on FanDuel and BetMGM. England is the favorite across all sportsbooks in Wednesday’s semifinal against Argentina, sitting at -130 to qualify for the World Cup final on DraftKings.
