Saturday, October 17, 2026
Law

Prediction Markets Arrive on Supreme Court’s Doorstep

New Jersey’s petition does not guarantee the Supreme Court will take up the case.

REUTERS/Cheney Orr

Want more from Front Office Sports
in your search results?

Add Front Office Sports on Google

New Jersey is asking the U.S. Supreme Court to take up the fight over sports-event contracts.

The state is asking the Supreme Court to weigh in on whether sports-event contracts should be regulated at the state or federal level. The request came Wednesday, in a petition for writ of certiorari from New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement interim director Mary Jo Flaherty and New Jersey attorney general Jennifer Davenport. The petition was filed one day before New Jersey’s deadline to make the request.

“Kalshi bills itself as ‘the first app for legal sports betting in all 50 states’ and believes it can offer that ‘legal sports betting’ without following the sports-gambling laws of any of those 50 States,” the petition says. “Kalshi and the other so-called ‘prediction markets’ have built an entire business model on the claim that Congress silently displaced the States’ authority over sports wagering 16 years ago when it directed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to regulate swaps in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.”

New Jersey’s petition comes less than a week after a three-judge panel for the Ninth Circuit, a federal appeals court, unanimously ruled that Nevada can enforce its gambling laws against Kalshi. That decision created what’s known as a “circuit split,” which is when two appeals courts rule differently on the same issue. In April, the Third Circuit ruled New Jersey’s gaming regulator could not stop Kalshi from offering sports-event contracts in the state.

The filing of the petition does not mean the Supreme Court is guaranteed to take up this specific case. Former CFTC lawyer Carl Kennedy, who now works at law firm Katten Muchin, wrote in an analysis last week that the two decisions “arise from preliminary-injunction proceedings, not final merit judgments,” meaning the Supreme Court could either choose to resolve the circuit split now or “or wait for a more procedurally developed case.”

Primary issues in both the Nevada and New Jersey lawsuits include whether the CFTC’s “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets extends to sports-event contracts, and if a federal law called the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) preempts state law. In the Third Circuit’s April decision, U.S. Circuit Judge David J. Porter wrote that sports-event contracts should be treated as swaps, which are contracts where two parties exchange money based on how something else changes—in the sports context, for example, the result of a game. Swaps generally fall under the CFTC’s authority.

According to New Jersey, the Supreme Court’s opinion is “urgently needed” because the outcome of this fight “will determine whether a multi-billion-dollar gaming industry can suddenly operate free from state sports-gaming laws.”

“Resolution of that conflict is profoundly important,” the petition says.

Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever said in a statement that the company disagrees with New Jersey’s filing.

“Kalshi is an open, nationwide financial exchange,” Lever said. “It cannot be regulated by 50 different regulators. Both the Third Circuit and the District of New Jersey sided with Kalshi because the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction preempts state law.”

She added that “while New Jersey points to a recent decision in the Ninth Circuit, that decision agreed with that key principle. Where it differed, it did so based on a regulation that’s in the process of being rewritten. We remain confident in the lower courts’ rulings, and nothing in New Jersey’s filing today changes our view.”

In June, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told Front Office Sports he wasn’t concerned about an eventual Supreme Court fight.

“We feel very confident about the legal analysis,” he said. “[Federal] preemption is very clear, and I think breaking that preemption would have more dramatic consequences on CFTC-regulated exchanges, SEC-regulated exchanges, all of that.”

Download the FOS App

The business of sports, in your pocket.

QR code to download the app

Scan the QR code to get the app now.

Linkedin
Whatsapp
Copy Link
Link Copied
Link Copied

What to Read

NFL Reinstates Josh Jacobs, Jonathon Cooper From Paid Leave

Each player missed six games while on the commissioner-exempt list.

NBA Draws New Lines on What Fans Can Bet On

The league is restricting risky player props.
Troy Aikman
Exclusive

Troy Aikman, Dolphins Have No Ongoing Consulting Agreement

Aikman’s official role ended with the coach and GM searches.
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine delivers a statement condemning the death penalty during a news conference at his office in Columbus on June 16, 2026.

NCAA Sues Ohio Governor Over Fifth-Year Eligibility Order

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine signed the executive order Tuesday.
podcast thumbnail mobile
Front Office Sports Today

10/16/26 – Aikman Eyes Free Agency, CFP Nears 24 Teams, Stoudemire Becomes Cop

0:00

Featured Today

College Flag Football Is Outgrowing Its DIY Era

Women have been building the college game themselves at the club level.
Oct 5, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas arrives at the arena before the Penguins host the Winnipeg Jets at PPG Paints Arena
October 12, 2026

NHL’s New Wave of GMs Is Built Different

“I am in the prediction business,” Devils GM Sunny Mehta tells FOS.
Action Images/Peter Cziborra
October 9, 2026

Is Leicester City’s $264 Million Price Tag Too Rich for Hungry Investors?

After falling from grace, how much is a former top club worth?
Oct 3, 2026; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer waits to run onto the field prior to the game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
October 7, 2026

Who Is Alabama Football in Year 3 Under Kalen DeBoer?

The No. 6 Crimson Tide host No. 2 Georgia on Saturday.
Cubs behind the scenes
October 6, 2026

Hollywood and TikTok: Sports Media’s New ‘Blueprint’

Teams and leagues are pouring money into the quest for fans.

PTPA Boss Accused of Harassment, Sexist Conduct in New Suit

The PTPA is listed as both a plaintiff and a defendant.
October 5, 2026

WPBL Records Case Alive Despite Board Member’s Firing

The league’s CEO tried to end the board member’s case by firing her.
First at FOS
October 13, 2026

Controversial Search Firm Memo on Brian Flores Unsealed by Court

The memo is evidence for several of Flores’s claims, his lawyers say.
Sponsored

The State of AI in Sports 2026

Front Office Sports and Teamworks reveal how AI is reshaping sports in the first industry-wide report on adoption, investment, and impact.
Mar 16, 2026; Inglewood, California, USA; LA Clippers owner Steve Ballmer reacts against the San Antonio Spurs in the first half at Intuit Dome. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Exclusive
October 2, 2026

Ballmer Drops Lawyer Who Called NBA Probe a ‘Witch Hunt’

O’Melveny & Myers had been representing Ballmer in multiple matters.
Polymarket logo appears in this illustration taken April 22, 2026.
September 24, 2026

New York Takes Aim at Polymarket With $4.6B Suit

“Our gambling laws exist to protect New Yorkers.”
September 17, 2026

Mark Walter and His Insurance Empire Face New Class Action Suit

An annuity holder sued the owner of the Dodgers and his companies.
Mar 21, 2026; Dallas, Texas, USA; LA Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) looks on during the game between the Mavericks and the Clippers at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
September 11, 2026

Kawhi Leonard Saga Enters Uncharted Territory With Federal Probe

News of the probe comes a week after the NBA announced its punishment.