NFL Warns Prediction Markets Operators Over Vulnerable Bets

PHOENIX — While there is an accelerating run of league-level deals with prediction markets, the NFL’s stance on the fast-growing space remains clear: the league needs a cleaner and more certain regulatory environment before doing an official deal with any provider. 

The NFL has signaled an openness to potentially working with prediction markets, and has certainly noted the growing number of league-level deals elsewhere, most recently MLB. But ongoing conflict in the regulatory framework for prediction markets and the possibility for greater federal intervention continue to muddy the waters for the NFL.

“That sounds like a prediction market question on prediction markets,” NFL EVP Jeff Miller said, when asked by Front Office Sports about the potential of an NFL deal with one or more operators. “It’s easy to make jokes, I guess. But I’ll share what I just shared with the owners: the principles we have here are exactly the principles we have in the legalized sports betting world. We need to look at the integrity of the game first, second, and third. The contracts we have with legalized sports betting companies represent that. That’s why we’ve been so busy all across the country trying to ensure that if there’s going to be legalized sports betting, that the integrity of the game is going to be protected, and that there’s a sufficient regulatory environment to pursue malefactors, and an enforcement regimen in place. 

“It’s no different in this space, but there’s greater uncertainty, with nearly 40 states in litigation with these companies right now on who is the right entity to regulate on a state level or a federal level. The CFTC has just begun the process of promulgating regulations. So until we get to that point where there’s a sufficient regulatory environment with enforcement in place and the league’s integrity is protected to the degree that we’re comfortable with, we’re going to stay where we are,” Miller continued.

In addition to MLB, other leagues such as the NHL, MLS, and UFC have formed their own partnerships with prediction markets. 

Sending Notice 

The NFL, meanwhile, sent letters to prediction market operators, including Kalshi and Polymarket, asking them to refrain from offering trades on easily manipulatable events. 

Among those potential situations of concern are in-game plays that an individual could affect, like whether a kicker will miss a field goal or what the first play of the game will be, as well as announcer call-outs, celebrities attending NFL events, and other such situations where the outcome can be easily determined in advance.

“The CFTC had suggested that sports leagues engage with some of the companies in the space and share our perspective on some of the bets or predictions that would concern us,” Miller said. “So we sent letters to all the major companies in the space over the weekend, issues that we think are challenging the integrity of the game or otherwise shouldn’t be permissible.”