Kyle Schwarber’s MVP Candidacy Could Lead to Massive Payday

Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber is making a late and historic run at the National League Most Valuable Player award, and he could reshape MLB’s upcoming free-agent market in the process.

Schwarber became just the 21st player in league history with a four-homer game, delivering the quartet of “Schwarbombs” in a 19–4 rout of the Braves on Thursday night in Philadelphia. Much more than one breakout game, though, Schwarber is resetting an MVP race previously thought to be a foregone conclusion for Shohei Ohtani. 

The Dodgers superstar remains the betting favorite to win for the second consecutive year, and for a third straight when including his American League award in 2023 with the Angels. Schwarber, however, is closing in on Ohtani, particularly as he has claimed the NL lead in both homers (49) and runs batted in (119), and he’s just one homer behind Mariners catcher and AL MVP contender Cal Raleigh for the major league lead. 

Schwarber has hit career highs in a series of offensive categories, with a month remaining in the regular season, as “MVP” chants have begun to ring out at Citizens Bank Park. Those measures also follow Schwarber’s heroics at last month’s All-Star Game, where he dominated the first home run swing-off to lead the NL to victory. 

“That guy’s awesome. I don’t know what else to say,” said Phillies teammate Aaron Nola. “The guy’s having a year for the ages.”

Market Dynamics

The 32-year-old Schwarber, meanwhile, is set to become a free agent after this season. He previously trailed Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker in rankings of available talent—largely because of his age, as Schwarber will turn 33 in March. His exploits and Tucker’s recent struggles, however, could alter those expectations, at least somewhat, as he has amassed a particularly strong walk season to culminate his four-year, $79 million deal with the Phillies.

Schwarber has said he would like to stay in Philadelphia, if possible. Wherever he goes, though, a deal in excess of $100 million is nearly certain. The Dodgers’ three-year, $66 million pact signed last offseason with 32-year-old Teoscar Hernández, a very good player but not at Schwarber’s level, provides a starting point for what teams might offer. Former Marlins GM David Samson said on his podcast earlier this month that Schwarber could ask for a $300 million deal.

Ohtani was the last player to hit free agency as an MVP, garnering a then-record $700 million deal with the Dodgers. He was just the fifth player in MLB history to win MVP in the same year he became a free agent, but Schwarber could become the sixth. 

“It’s looking at back when I signed here in 2022, and seeing where you’re at now,” Schwarber recently told The Philadelphia Inquirer. “The accumulation of work. The things that have made me better. You think about your kids. You sign here, and have your first kid, and then you have two, and your third one on the way. A lot of [those life events] have happened here.”