A Netflix documentary trailer on prediction markets sparked an online uproar this week over footage appearing to show a Kalshi trade on the World Cup being made in Nevada, despite the platform being barred from offering sports markets in the state under court order.
But the image critics seized on—a $5,000 bet on Spain to win the tournament—was placed in 2025, before the court ruling that prohibited Kalshi from offering sports-event contracts in the state, according to Netflix. Kalshi, however, says the bet slip was “fabricated” and has called the entire documentary into question. “Is anything in this documentary real?” said Kalshi’s head of marketing, Brandon Beckhardt, in a statement late Friday. The 36-minute documentary, called “Instadocs: The Prediction Games,” was made available to stream on Netflix on Sunday.
Roughly 29 seconds into the trailer, a phone screen is shown with the Kalshi platform on it, and a person’s voice says they bet $5,000 on Spain to win the World Cup. The brief moment caused controversy, because the video was filmed in Nevada on July 19, 2026, while Kalshi has been prohibited from offering sports-event contracts in the state since March as it fights a lawsuit brought against it by the state’s gaming regulator (Polymarket is also barred from offering sports markets in the state under a court order originally issued in January as part of a separate suit also brought by the Nevada Gaming Control Board).
CNN reporter Marshall Cohen questioned “where and when” the trades were made. IP attorney Ariel Givner asked “Netflix legal whatchu guys doin???” Dustin Gouker, who writes “The Closing Line” substack, noted that “we have only had a trailer live for a few hours and there is already controversy.”
Cohen later posted on social media that Kalshi told him they want Netflix to take down the trailer because it’s “misleading.” Kalshi originally told him—and also told Front Office Sports—that the trade shown in the trailer was placed in 2025, before the court order.
A Netflix spokesperson told FOS that account was correct. The trailer was indeed filmed in Las Vegas earlier this month, but the trader who flashed his phone to the camera was showing a screenshot of a trade he had made in May 2025. It’s not clear whether the person was even in Nevada when they made the bet.
The event shown in the trailer was put on by a different company, called Winible, which describes itself as an “all-in-one platform powering the next generation of sports content creators.” Netflix was allowed to film for its documentary, the spokesperson says. “To my understanding, it was a private event. A handful of the biggest people in the prediction-market space were invited to come watch the World Cup.”
Winible posted about the controversy and said nothing illegal occurred.
However, Kalshi on Friday afternoon demanded that Netflix take down the trailer, issuing a cease-and-desist letter that says it “features both fabricated documents and false and misleading statements portraying trades being made on Kalshi in violation of a court order.”
“These false statements jeopardize Kalshi’s legal standing in litigation that is highly material to Kalshi’s business,” the letter says. Kalshi wants the trailer removed immediately and is asking Netflix to issue a statement “rescinding the false and defamatory content.”
In response to Kalshi’s letter, a Netflix spokesperson said it “upholds the highest standards of journalistic integrity in its documentary programming.”
“Any specific trades or bets referenced during that weekend are between the individual and the app in which they placed the trades.”
This comes amid a broader dispute over whether Kalshi has properly blocked users in Nevada from trading on sports-event contracts. Last month, the Nevada gaming regulator asked the judge in the lawsuit with Kalshi to hold the company in contempt over claims that people could still bet on markets that were supposed to be blocked.
Late Friday night, the Nevada Gaming Control Board said it had reached a deal with Kalshi to avoid holding it in contempt. Under the agreement, Kalshi has agreed to “immediately take steps to implement a robust, multi-source geofencing solution” that will prevent users in Nevada from using its platform to bet on sports-event contracts. Kalshi must complete that process by Aug. 12 or pay the regulator $120,000 per day until it comes into compliance.
