‘Deal Terms on the Table’: Inside the NBA’s Prediction-Market Talks
Cooper Flagg, who declared for the NBA draft Monday, is about to completely change the trajectory of a franchise.
The Duke freshman is the consensus No. 1 pick this June, and several teams battled for better lottery odds to hopefully secure the 18-year-old. When the lottery is complete in three weeks, Flagg could become the savior for franchises including the Wizards, Hornets, and Pelicans that have struggled to get out of the NBA’s cellar, or he could provide new life for teams such as the Sixers and Mavericks after disastrous seasons.
However, Flagg’s arrival may alter more than just an NBA franchise and its city. After a 2% dip in regular-season ratings—which is relatively minor but continues a downward trend—he could be exactly what the league needs as it begins its new media deal. He is also a leading candidate to be the next torchbearer for U.S. men’s basketball players, especially as LeBron James and Steph Curry’s careers come to a close, and the league’s hierarchy shifts with the influx of stars from around the world.
When it comes to the globalization of a U.S. professional sports league, the NBA is the gold standard. Entering the 2024–2025 season, rosters featured 125 international players (about a fourth of the league) from 43 countries. The NBA has also established a professional basketball league in Africa and is exploring a new league in Europe that could include parts of the Middle East.
International growth spells big business for the league, as a broader audience means additional sponsorships and international TV deals. Over the last two drafts, six total international players went in the top 10, and both No. 1 picks were Frenchmen—Zaccharie Risacher (Hawks) and Victor Wembanyama (Spurs). Just this year, the NBA saw its most-watched season in France driven by the San Antonio big man’s sophomore campaign.
Meanwhile, the last six MVPs have been born outside the United States (Nikola Jokić, Joel Embiid, and Giannis Antetokounmpo), a streak that will increase to seven this year given the two favorites are Canada’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Serbia’s Jokić.
Several young American prospects still reign at the top of the NBA. The defending champion Celtics are led by two of them—Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown—while Anthony Edwards and Devin Booker remain some of the league’s most popular players. But none of them has been able to unseat Curry and James in terms of popularity. The two veterans are the only American players among the top five in most-viewed social videos this season.
The U.S. has been known as the definitive powerhouse in the sport for decades, but even after winning the gold medal in men’s and women’s basketball at the Paris Olympics, there is a growing sentiment that the rest of the world is catching up.
Flagg is the best U.S. prospect in the NBA draft since Zion Williamson in 2019 and perhaps even Anthony Davis in 2012. Last summer, before even playing for Duke, Flagg became the first teenager in more than a decade to join a U.S. select team that trained against Team USA. According to The Washington Post, Flagg, then 17 years old, stole the show for the select team that nearly defeated the lead U.S. squad.
“He looks like a hell of a player,” Suns forward Kevin Durant said in July.
However, NBA commissioner Adam Silver doesn’t want to put the weight of the entire country on the shoulders of a teenager.
“The last person I want to put pressure on is Cooper Flagg,” Silver said at a January press conference in France. Silver said it’s more important for the NBA to continue to help with the youth developmental programs in the U.S., though he’s “not concerned at all about the pipeline of American players.”
There is a notion that American players drive better ratings than international stars, not only in the NBA but also across other sports like tennis or golf. This is ostensibly true when looking at the NBA’s viewership numbers.
At least one of James or Curry was in the NBA Finals between 2012 and 2020. The Finals viewership numbers have also taken a slight dip since that stretch, with the most-watched championship series since being the 2022 Finals that featured Curry and the Warriors. The 2021 and 2023 Finals were won by teams led by international stars (Antetokounmpo and Jokić, respectively).
Fortunately for the NBA, regardless of what happens with its ratings, it’s already locked in a historic 11-year, $77 billion media-rights deal that kicks in next season.
If the NCAA is any indication, Flagg, the 2025 Naismith Men’s College Player of the Year, will be a ratings darling in the NBA, assuming he finds similar success.
