CFP Expansion Could Raise Stakes for Coaches, Buyout Costs

As momentum for an expanded College Football Playoff continues, the impact on coaches and their salaries is coming into focus. 

A large part of the initial conversation has been around school revenue and the future of conference championship games, but where coaches fit into the equation was a discussion topic on Saturday’s episode of ESPN’s College Gameday. 

ESPN reporter Pete Thamel explained that money is the driving factor, but it was driven by coaches to their respective administrations and upwards. The proposed deal, described on the broadcast as a “handshake agreement,” is $345 million additional from ESPN to the CFP and distributed amongst conferences. 

The proposed deal would include 19 at-large bids, Power 4 conference champions and the highest-ranked Group of 6 school. 

“We got here because of spending on rosters, revenue sharing and NIL (name, image, and likeness),” Thamel said. “The pressure came from coaches to athletic directors to the presidents — the [Big Ten and SEC] are spending an average of $30 million [per roster]. They want access. This is an access play more than a money play.”

Analyst Kirk Herbstreit pushed the point forward, suggesting that the pressure on coaches led to their push for more teams. 

“It does give more teams hope, more fan bases hope,” Herbstreit said. “Coaches are driving it because it’s the fear of ‘If we don’t make the playoffs, we’re gonna get fired. So you have more teams, more opportunities.” 

Increasing Buyout Amounts 

There’s been uncharacteristic non-movement in coaching this season. This is the first season since 2019, excluding the COVID-19-affected 2020 season, in which zero FBS coaches were fired before Oct. 1. 

There were four coaches fired last season at this time: Sam Pittman (Arkansas), James Franklin (Penn State), Trent Dilfer (UAB), and Deshaun Foster (UCLA), and there’s been an average of two per season since 2019. The four coaches shared a combined buyout of more than $65 million.

An expanded playoff system will allow for more programs to meet an expectation threshold, and potentially lower buyout spending. 

Since the CFP’s inception in 2014, the amount of buyout money has approached $1 billion, according to estimates by Front Office Sports. 

Including buyouts for head coaches and assistant coaches, this is the estimated total for the past 12 fiscal years, which includes the previous calendar year’s football season (i.e., the 2015 fiscal year contains coaches fired during or after the 2014 season): 

• 2015: $32.3 million
• 2016: $39.9 million
• 2017: $48.3 million
• 2018: $104.1 million
• 2019: $68.9 million
• 2020: $61.6 million
• 2021: $84.7 million
• 2022: $98.2 million
• 2023: $103.1 million
• 2024: $120.7 million
• 2025: $34.7 million
• 2026: $185 million

Nick Saban offered his thoughts on the broadcast as well, cautioning the consequences of expansion. 

“We’ve lowered the bar to get in the playoffs, and we’re gonna raise the expectations of the fans to get in the game,” Saban said. “Where lots of coaches think ‘this gives me job security’, it’s also going to create an expectation that if you don’t make the playoffs, they’re gonna fire your ass.”