The betting line movement has been crazy for some markets in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The wildest—not just this year, but in recent memory—is what’s been happening for the No. 2 overall pick, where Texas Tech edge David Bailey and Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese have been seesawing as the favorites to be selected by the Jets.
A week ago, the two were in a nearly dead heat. Then, Reese shot up to as high as an 80% favorite over the weekend on Kalshi. The line has since moved back to Bailey as a slight favorite. As of Thursday morning, Bailey is at 54% while Reese is at 47%.
“I’ve honestly never seen this type of line movement. Almost every analyst I respect thinks the Jets will take Bailey, but Reese keeps getting pounded,” betting expert Doug Kezirian told Front Office Sports. “We’ve seen the market stop and then come back the other way. It makes no sense.”
Kezirian was the first gambling anchor at ESPN, where he hosted Daily Wager. He makes picks for the New York Post and once famously won nearly $300,000 on a 100-1 NFL Draft prop.
The NFL Draft is a peculiar beast for betting. Because there’s no mystery whatsoever that Fernando Mendoza is going first overall to the Raiders, the Jets are effectively on the clock and there are a good number of people in their organization who already know who they’re drafting. Sportsbooks have typically had lower limits on NFL Draft props because they are fun for recreational gamblers but also susceptible to insider information. Prediction markets, with the peer-to-peer element, have much higher liquidity. Nonetheless, the markets across sportsbooks and prediction markets tend to move in concert.
While the steam returned to Bailey, the fact that he has not become a prohibitive favorite means a strong cohort is still betting Reese.
Connor Allen, a rigorous betting analyst at 4for4, also pointed to the “showdown” between NFL insider reporters and what bettors have been doing.
“As of now, there is a pretty big showdown between the market and national insiders. We are looking at 90 percent-ish of national insiders (Daniel Jeremiah, Peter Schrager, Todd McShay, etc.) all slotting in David Bailey at No. 2 overall. Meanwhile, prediction markets have Bailey as just a small favorite. Very strange to be honest,” Allen told FOS.
Allen has also observed big line movement in a couple of other markets. Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has gone from -115 to -300 to be a first-round pick “in the past day or so, meaning some people are quite confident he is a first-rounder,” he said.
The 4for4 analyst also noted that Arizona State wideout Jordyn Tyson went from being 5-to-1 to be a top-10 pick about two weeks ago to now being -720. “One of the craziest swings I can remember,” Allen said.
