What’s at Stake in NFL Week 18? Seeding, Viewership, Draft Position, and More

Even with 12 of the NFL’s 14 playoff spots already locked up, there’s plenty still at stake in the final week of the 2024 regular season, and the league adjusted its broadcast schedule accordingly.

The NFL made a series of schedule flexes late Sunday to finalize the Week 18 layout, putting two of the most contested divisional races in featured positions. ESPN’s Jan. 4 doubleheader will showcase the race for the AFC North title between a Browns-Ravens game followed by a Bengals-Steelers one.

At 11-5, Baltimore currently holds a one-game edge over Pittsburgh, but the Steelers would have the tiebreaker and claim the division if both teams finish at 11-6. The winner of the division will gain the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoffs behind No. 1 Kansas City, a top ratings draw now perhaps playing without its starters for nearly a month, and No. 2 Buffalo. 

The regular season, meanwhile, will conclude with a blockbuster final contest, colloquially known as the NFL’s Game 272, that will be a winner-take-all clash on NBC’s Sunday Night Football between the Vikings and Lions for the NFC North championship. More importantly, though, the top overall seed in the NFC, including a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs, is also at stake. 

It will also be the second straight flex for the Vikings into a featured broadcast position, as the team’s 27–25 win Sunday over Green Bay took over the America’s Game of the Week slot on Fox, pushing out a Cowboys-Eagles game.

Other Issues To Settle

The final week of the regular season also has several other key races and milestones at stake. Among them:

• The NFC South title. The 9-7 Buccaneers control their destiny, holding a one-game advantage over the Falcons. Tampa Bay will face New Orleans at 1 p.m. ET on Jan. 5, while Atlanta will host Carolina at the same time. The Falcons hold the tiebreaker over the Buccaneers if both finish with 9-8 records.
• A final wild-card slot. In addition to the NFC South championship, there is still one unclaimed playoff berth in the AFC. The 9-7 Broncos hold the edge there, but the 8-8 Dolphins and Bengals are still trying to claim the spot. 
• Playoff positioning. Even with most of the playoff entrants already known, there is plenty of jockeying still happening for final seeding. The Steelers in particular could shift between No. 3 and a division winner and as low as the No. 6 seed. The winner of Game 272 between the Vikings and Lions, meanwhile, will gain the NFC’s No. 1 seed, while the loser will be No. 5 in that conference. The 10-6 Chargers, finishing the regular season at the Raiders, are also still pushing for a No. 5 seed, which would bring a first-round playoff matchup at the No. 4 Texans. 
• An all-time rushing title? Eagles running back Saquon Barkley on Sunday became the ninth player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in a season. With 101 more yards against the Giants, Barkley’s former team, on Jan. 5, he would break the league record held for 40 years by Eric Dickerson. The Eagles, however, are locked in as the NFC’s No. 2 seed.
• The MVP race. Bills quarterback Josh Allen still holds a betting advantage over Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, but the Baltimore star—already a two-time winner of the award—is closing fast, and has much more to play for this weekend. 

Race to the Bottom

At the other end of the NFL’s competitive landscape, there is a four-team race for the worst record, and in turn, the first pick in the 2025 draft—currently presumed by many to be Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders. The Browns, Giants, Patriots, and Titans all hold 3-13 marks, and New York lost its grip on landing the top draft pick by upsetting the Colts Sunday, 45–33, for its first victory in nearly three months.

The Patriots now hold the tiebreaker in the race.

New England, meanwhile, is also at the forefront of a Week 18 game with particularly inverse incentives. The Patriots will host the Bills to close out the season, and fans will be rooting for another loss to clinch that top draft slot. Buffalo, meanwhile, has its playoff position solidified and will be far more interested in keeping Allen and its other starters healthy for the postseason.