SEC Positioned for Five CFP Spots As Title Game Chaos Looms

The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings of the season show that the SEC is likely to have five schools in the 12-team bracket, and that potential upsets could create chaos, leaving some strong contenders—and even a Power 4 conference—at home.

Here are the top 12 teams after Tuesday night’s rankings reveal:

• 1: Ohio State
• 2: Indiana
• 3: Georgia
• 4: Texas Tech
• 5: Oregon
• 6: Ole Miss
• 7: Texas A&M
• 8: Oklahoma
• 9: Alabama
• 10: Notre Dame
• 11: BYU
• 12: Miami

On Sunday, the CFP selection committee will reveal its final rankings. The five highest-ranked conference champions and the next seven highest-ranked teams will earn Playoff spots, with straight seeding being implemented this year. The top four seeds will earn first-round byes.

Where Surprises Could Unfold

This weekend’s SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 championship games all feature teams inside the top 11. But this is where things get interesting: Two of the five automatic bids from conference champions will be awarded to teams not currently ranked inside the top 12. 

The ACC title game features No. 17 Virginia vs. unranked Duke, which has a 7–5 record. The American Conference championship game features No. 20 Tulane vs. No. 24 North Texas. No. 25 James Madison plays Troy in the Sun Belt Conference championship game.

Effectively, the top 10 teams in the final rankings will make the CFP, with the last two bids coming from lower in the rankings. If No. 11 BYU were to upset No. 4 Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game, it’s likely that both teams would make the CFP, and the No. 10–ranked team (right now that’s Notre Dame) would get booted out.

If Duke were to beat Virginia in the ACC championship game, that would very likely mean the ACC being left out of the CFP, and two Group of 6 conference champions getting in—the winner of the American and JMU, if they beat Troy.

The SEC appears to have at least five teams locked into CFP bids in No. 3 Georgia, No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 7 Texas A&M, No. 8 Oklahoma, and No. 9 Alabama. The Big Ten looks set to have three CFP teams in No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Indiana, and No. 5 Oregon. Last year, the Big Ten placed four teams in the CFP, while the SEC had three.

Three major contenders who may have had their fates sealed are No. 12 Miami, No. 13 Texas, and No. 14 Vanderbilt, who are not playing in conference championship games this weekend. CFP selection committee chairman Hunter Yurachek did say on ESPN Tuesday night that those teams could still move up or down in Sunday’s final rankings. However, that would break from the committee’s strategy a year ago.