MLB Sent Memo Warning Players About Prediction Markets
SAN ANTONIO — The state of Florida is the NIL (name, image, and likeness) capital of the nation in many ways. It had a state law allowing NIL deals beginning on July 1, 2021—earlier than other states—that forced the NCAA to change its rules nationwide. Schools in Miami particularly had many of the biggest early NIL boosters and also drew some of the earliest scandals.
But the No. 1–seeded Florida men’s basketball team didn’t build a Final Four–caliber roster with the promise of big paychecks to entice the flashiest recruits. Yes, it’s used the transfer portal, which, since December 2023, has allowed for unrestricted transfers. Yes, it’s an NIL ecosystem to pay players.
But the Gators have also spent the past few years putting together a scrappy roster of under-the-radar players, investing heavily in advanced analytics to discover them. And while all teams have access to analytics, the Gators believe they focus on different metrics than other teams—which often leads them to recruiting players who have gone overlooked.
On Friday in San Antonio, head coach Todd Golden told reporters, “We try to view everything we do through an analytical [lens] … just gathering as much data as we possibly can on whatever decision it is that we’re trying to make.”
The program hadn’t been to a Final Four since 2014, and hadn’t appeared in an Elite Eight since 2018. Golden was hired in 2022, tasked with a rebuild after the Mike White era. He brought Jonathan Safir, Florida’s director of basketball strategy and analytics, along with him.
Safir describes his role to Front Office Sports as to “try and just optimize and find ways to win on the margins.” That could be analyzing statistics of the opposing team during a game to influence playing strategy—Golden pointed to how many times the team decided to foul Texas Tech players in the final minutes of the Elite Eight game, as well as which players to target, as an example. Or, it could mean identifying recruits who could fill a gap in the Gators’ roster (somewhat similar to a moneyball approach). Golden said even nonconference scheduling is influenced by advanced metrics.
The process for recruiting players goes something like this: First, the team uses a mix of analytics—often starting with KenPom statistics but also using a variety of numbers—to vet the player’s potential. Safir believes the Gators focus on different stats than other teams, and that’s worked to their advantage. “We don’t ever look at counting stats,” he says. Instead, the team invests in other advanced metrics, like a player’s steal and block rate from a defensive end, for example.
Then, a player has to pass the “eye test” and finally visit Gainesville on a recruiting trip to see how he may mesh with the rest of the team, program, and community. Not every program relies so heavily on these visits.
As for NIL, there’s a preliminary conversation about the range of compensation a player would agree to—and if the numbers are too high, the player isn’t even considered. If the relationship is mutual, a player will sign. He emphasizes that the program only wants players who are dedicated to Florida, rather than just looking for a paycheck.
“We’ve never gotten a single player because we’re the highest bidder,” Safir says. He adds: “We make sure our guys are taken care of financially, but it’s about so much more than that. We want guys with great attitudes, great work ethics, and guys who really want to be here.”
The team recruited Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh out of high school, but most other key contributors have come through the transfer portal. Safir points to Will Richard, who started at Florida in 2022, as the program’s first big recruit of the new era. Richard was completely “under-recruited” out of high school, and played his freshman season at Belmont. Then, there are the team’s two leading scorers, Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin, who were both zero-star recruits coming out of high school. Clayton was recruited from Rick Pitino’s Iona program in 2023 (Florida was able to lure him away from joining Pitino’s new program at St. John’s), and Martin came from FAU in 2024.
During the Elite Eight postgame interview, Golden called his players “badass,” and said he didn’t care that they weren’t ranked high.
The Gators’ strategy will face its biggest test yet when they play the overall top-seeded Auburn Tigers in an all-SEC Final Four matchup in San Antonio. Whatever happens Saturday night, however, Golden is confident that the team’s approach has already been a success.
“We try to bridge that gap, also, of being analytical while also using a little bit of a human element to make some certain decisions,” Golden said Thursday. “I think obviously, where we are right now, and the way we’ve done it, is really good proof of concept with the way we’re trying to build our program.”
