Arch Manning’s Rough Season Clouds His Draft Stock, Texas’s Investment

Texas’s 2026 playoff hopes are in flux after two consecutive losses, and its star-studded offense—led by high-priced quarterback Arch Manning—is at the center of criticism. 

Through six games, the Longhorns’ offense is on pace to be the worst statistically under coach Steve Sarkisian. Texas ranks 64th nationally in points per game (30.2), 92nd nationally in yards per game (362.3), and 104th in yards per play (5.2). It’s an alarming trend considering Texas’s investment in offense, highlighted by Manning, one of the most recognizable players in the country; several former blue-chip recruits; and expensive transfers, such as wide receiver Cam Coleman and running back Hollywood Smothers. 

Manning’s play, in particular, has come into focus. The fourth-year quarterback has committed three costly turnovers (two interceptions, one fumble) over the last two games and six total on the season, amplifying the Longhorns’ struggles. Last week, Sarkisian pushed back on criticism, suggesting that if his starting quarterback’s last name wasn’t Manning, his play would be praised. Today, however, there are legitimate questions about Manning’s job security for the first time since he was named Texas’s starter last season. 

“Arch can play better for us,” Sarkisian told reporters Monday, two days after a 27–24 loss to Florida dropped the Longhorns’ record to 4–2. “He’s our starter, but I need to see a better version of Arch Manning. I need to see a better version of a lot of guys on our offensive football team right now, but we need to see a better version of him this week.”

On Monday, ESPN reported that backup quarterback KJ Lacey Jr. would receive an uptick in first-team reps this week ahead of Saturday’s home game against No. 7 Ole Miss. Sarkisian was asked to elaborate on the report three separate times Monday and rebuffed each question. 

“He takes first-team reps every week,” the coach answered when first asked about the report. 

“He gets his first-team reps. That’s what he’ll get,” he said when asked about the specificity of Lacey’s first-team reps in practice. 

When asked a third time whether those reps will be more than normal this week, Sarkisian remained coy. 

“Not to me, but we’ll find out as the week goes,” he said. 

Lacey, a four-star recruit from the 2025 recruiting class, attempted just one pass—a seven-yard completion—for Texas last season. He has seen action in two games this year, against Texas State and UTSA, completing seven of his eight pass attempts for 63 yards. 

“He’s a smooth operator,” right guard Brandon Baker said. “He’s a great player. Great person. You get to see those steps that he takes, and it’s cool to see.”

Manning’s Multifold Struggles

Manning’s subpar start this season comes on the heels of a strong finish to the 2025 campaign. Texas won its final three games, and Manning finished with 11 total touchdowns (seven passing, four rushing), with zero turnovers and an average QBR of 94.5. 

Through six games this season, he has 11 passing touchdowns, zero rushing touchdowns, six turnovers, and a 59.3 QBR. His performance could prove especially costly with regard to next year’s NFL Draft, where it was previously believed he could follow in the footsteps of his uncles—Peyton and Eli Manning—as the No. 1 pick.

“I think a big part of it is just he’s still working through the decision-making part of playing the position,” Dane Brugler, an NFL Draft analyst at The Athletic, told Front Office Sports. “There are a lot of times where he’s conservative when he needs to be aggressive, but then he’s aggressive when he needs to be conservative. … There’s just too much of a methodical nature to his decision-making right now, and that’s holding him back.”

Manning was the No. 1 high school football prospect in the country in 2023, receiving a 0.995 rating out of 1.000 from 247Sports. The only two players with higher ratings as recruits who played for the Longhorns are quarterbacks Vince Young and former teammate Quinn Ewers (who originally signed with Ohio State), both of whom each received 1.000 grades. Manning also boasts a substantial NIL portfolio with endorsement deals from EA Sports, Red Bull, Uber, and more, with On3 reporting in August that he has secured a roster deal worth roughly $2.5 million for the 2026 season.

His recruiting ranking, family background, and financial gravity as a player have created large expectations, which to this point haven’t been consistently met. 

“You watch the fourth quarter against Ohio State, you isolate some of his throws, whether it’s against Oklahoma or Florida,” Brugler said. “He makes several throws and several plays in those games that—O.K., that’s an NFL player. But the body of work overall has been inconsistent. I think there’s a lot of reasons for that. Texas has more of an offensive problem than a quarterback problem.” 

While there are questions about Manning and his play, there have been just as many questions regarding Sarkisian, who doubles as the Longhorns’ head coach and offensive play-caller. Overall, Texas goes three-and-out on 34.3% of its drives, the highest rate in the SEC. It converts only 41.7% of third downs, 61st nationally. Elsewhere, the Longhorns rank 102nd nationally in rushing yards per game (136) and 120th in yards per rush (3.6). 

Manning’s inconsistent play has added a layer to the quarterback development under Sarkisian at Texas. His predecessor, Ewers, was another top-rated high school prospect who ultimately fell to the seventh round of the 2025 NFL Draft. It’s too early to tell whether Manning will experience a similar draft slide, but scouts are taking notice of his play to date.  

“I just don’t think he has good enough tape consistently to show that he needs to declare for the [2027 NFL Draft],” ESPN NFL Draft analyst Jordan Reid told FOS. “If I was him and I was advising him, if things continue to go off the rails as it has this season, I would look elsewhere as far as somebody that has a proven track record of developing those quarterbacks. But I just don’t see him being a 2027 quarterback prospect right now, just based on what he has put on tape so far this year.”

What’s Next? 

Manning hasn’t shied away from his performance, stating this week that he met with Sarkisian and gave a vow to improve. 

“I just told him that I fully expect to play better,” Manning said. “The losing’s never fun, and not playing well isn’t fun, but I think this team’s built for adversity. I’m built for adversity, and we’re going to respond. I know that.

“It’s hard to not have a chip on my shoulder right now. I’ll tell you that. And I think I play better with it on.”

Manning has yet to be benched, and his starting status is largely contingent on his performance this Saturday in what will likely be a do-or-die game for Texas’s playoff hopes. Only one team (2024 Clemson, which won the ACC title) has made the 12-team College Football Playoff with three losses in the regular season. For Manning himself, the key to reversing course for his play and Texas’s season is less about the physical and more about regaining his confidence. 

“I think we just got to play like we practice and let it rip and have some fun,” Manning said. “I feel like I’ve been a little too hesitant, to be quite honest. Just let it rip. I’m going to die on the hill of ‘I’m letting it rip.’”

Looking ahead, his standing on NFL Draft boards fluctuates. There have been highs and lows. At this point, all possibilities are on the table. 

“Is he going to stay at Texas? Is he going to transfer?” Brugler said. “There’s just a lot of question marks around right now that I think there’s just a big TBD next to his name and what the future holds for him.”