Rockets Look Like Contenders, but Payroll Questions Loom

The Rockets defeated the Thunder on Sunday in a battle between the top two seeds in the Western Conference, which moved Houston to just a half-game back of the No. 1 seed.

With just three nationally televised games this year (not including NBA TV), and none until the middle of January, the Rockets have flown under the radar despite being one of the league’s biggest surprises. 

Their success can be attributed to the league’s second-best defense and a loaded roster. Houston has seven players who average double figures in scoring, but they’re one of just two teams in the league on which no player averages more than 20 points per game. The team also sports a young core group of players, as six of its top eight players in minutes per game are 23 or younger.

But it’s the depth and youth that also pose questions for the Rockets’ future. The team’s payroll for the 2024–2025 season is $160.29 million, good for 24th in the NBA—but is projected to shoot up to $188.1 million next season, which would be ninth, according to Basketball Reference. This bump is due to the contract extensions of Alperen Şengün (five years, $185 million) and Jalen Green (three years, $106 million) that kick in next year.

Fortunately for the Rockets, they still have space available before hitting the first apron, a salary threshold that enforces roster construction penalties on teams. That also means Houston isn’t sniffing the second apron, the threshold that troubles NBA executives.

However, there are a slew of young players and veteran stalwarts whose contracts could complicate Houston’s salary structure. 

First is Fred VanVleet, the team’s 30-year-old starting point guard who dropped 38 points in the win over Oklahoma City. He has a $44.89 million team option for next year. The 2019 NBA champion, who is extension eligible, said before the season that he wants to stay in Houston long-term—but a deal similar to the three-year, $130 million contract he signed with the Rockets in 2023 would make it harder to sign other players. 

The 6-foot VanVleet is also ahead of other young guards in the team’s rotation, particularly 2024 No. 3 pick Reed Sheppard. The Rockets could also strategically choose to sign VanVleet to a deal that would end at the same time Sheppard’s potential extension would kick in—which would be the 2028–2029 season.

The other major question for the Rockets is Jabari Smith Jr. The No. 3 pick in the 2022 draft is extension eligible this offseason—and he’s a significant contributor to the team despite his averages mirroring his first two seasons in the league. An extension for the 21-year-old will likely raise his $10 million salary this year to north of $25 million or $30 million starting in the 2026–2027 season.

Other young players who could receive contracts in the coming years are Tari Eason (extension eligible this offseason), Amen Thompson, and Cam Whitmore (both extension eligible in 2026).

With all the players on its roster, Houston, despite being the No. 2 seed, could decide to make a consolidation trade at the deadline, dealing more players than it receives, before the money becomes a major issue. The team has the young players and draft capital—including several future picks from the Suns—to swing for the fences and potentially solidify its future payroll.

Ultimately, it’s a good problem to have, especially for a team less than four seasons removed from trading franchise icon James Harden.