How the 12-Team Playoff Is Treating Ohio State, Oregon, and Oklahoma Differently

Ohio State football lost the biggest game of the young college football season, blowing a 20-point, fourth quarter lead in a 24-23 defeat to Texas. And yet, its title odds have improved since Saturday. 

The Buckeyes opened the season at +600 to win the national championship on sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings, among the top odds alongside Texas, Notre Dame, and Georgia. Following Saturday’s game, Ohio State’s national title odds have increased to +510 on DraftKings, the best odds in college football and remain at +600 on FanDuel as of Monday morning, tied for highest alongside Texas. The preseason favorite to win the Big Ten, Ohio State’s odds have improved there as well. 

Is that indicative of a regular season that doesn’t matter as much as a result of playoff expansion? Not necessarily. 

Despite the loss, Ohio State put on a largely impressive performance on the road early in the season. On the other hand, the nature of the loss—AP No. 1-ranked teams had been 197-0 since 2004 when holding a 20-point lead at any point in the fourth quarter until Saturday—is tough to reconcile, however, the out-of-conference defeat won’t hurt the Buckeyes in the Big Ten standings.

For the winner of the game, Texas, there’s no shortage of tangible positives. 

“We could be like other teams and play Jones Junior High tonight and win 66–0,” Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian said in his postgame press conference. “I don’t know what that does for us. What I think it does for us, is we found out we can (win big games). We’ve been close, knocking on the door so I think it’s helpful that we got a chance to play a game like this… Surely that’s helpful for us from a mentality standpoint.”

In his press conference on Monday, Sarkisian also vouched for Ohio State’s efforts, noting that the Longhorns missed the playoff last season after the Buckeyes handed them their first of three regular-season losses.

“Quite frankly, Ohio State should be rewarded for playing in this game against us, and so that’s my goal. Time will tell, you know,” he said. “And this isn’t crying over spilled milk. I don’t think we got rewarded for going to Columbus last year in Week One.”

Texas’s win has some notable precedence. Excluding 2020 Alabama, who didn’t play non-conference games in a COVID-affected season, the last three SEC national champions—Georgia (2022, 2021) and LSU (2019)—each recorded a top-10 non-conference win in September. And perceptually, the victory over the Buckeyes was a huge boost for the Longhorns program. 

Elsewhere in college football, two weeks of results have created a foundation where pressure and parity can co-exist. 

Increased Urgency

Arguably the most significant—and most shocking—result of the weekend came from Stillwater, Oklahoma, where an Oklahoma State team one week removed from a loss to Tulsa turned around and shocked No. 6 Oregon. The loss doesn’t destroy the Ducks’ CFP hopes, but it puts their season in a much different perspective. 

Oregon opened the season as one of the national championship favorites and a near-lock to make the College Football Playoff: -320, fourth-best behind Ohio State (-360), Indiana (-350) and Notre Dame (-800). As of today those odds have dropped to +160, which is 11th nationally. Oregon started the season ranked second in the nation, the highest preseason raking in school history. Two weeks later, the Ducks rank 21st,effectively becoming a playoff bubble team in just two weeks.

One non-conference loss isn’t the end all, be all (see 2024 Notre Dame and 2025 Alabama as two examples), but in the context of Oregon’s remaining schedule, the pressure is on. Oregon has several notable games remaining including at USC and consecutive games against Ohio State and Michigan in November. These games were always going to hold significance, but Oregon’s margin for error has decreased dramatically, and it’s compounded by the team that beat them. If Oklahoma State finishes the season 9-3, the loss might not sting—if it’s a 5-7 Cowboys team (or worse), Oregon will have to overcome the dreaded “bad loss.” 

The same can be said for Oklahoma, another 2025 playoff team, who took an upset loss to Michigan on Saturday. The loss, given the start of Michigan’s controversial Week 1 win over Western Michigan, has temporarily torpedoed Oklahoma’s Playoff odds—down to +520, 22nd nationally—more than double what they were last week. The Sooners’ remaining schedule includes four AP top 10 teams: Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M. There are plenty of regular season opportunities to make a loss up, but an added pressure to perform in those games. And the Sooners will be paying close attention to Michigan moving forward, whose season outlook feels completely different today than a week ago. 

A Brewing Narrative Battle

There is no collection of schools more affected by regular season results than Group of Six programs vying for playoff spots, where the pathway to secure a bid is narrow. Through two weeks, no team has helped itself more than Boise State, who secured the pivotal “respectable loss to the P4 team on your schedule” (see 2025 James Madison vs. Louisville) in a 34-27 loss to Oregon, and followed it with a 38-20 win over Memphis, one of the other G6 teams in the playoff conversation. 

The Broncos entered the year with the highest G6 odds (+420) of making the playoff and have essentially cut that in half through two weeks (+240). The next highest G6 team odds: North Dakota State, which is in its first year in the FBS, at +650. 

On a larger scale, the first two weeks of the season can be categorized as the re-emergence of the SEC. After a three-year national title drought, it was fair to question its position next to the Big Ten. But through two weeks, the results are notable and can have lasting impacts. 

The SEC is 8-2 against fellow Power 4 teams so far, while the Big Ten is 3-7, including a few head-to-head wins. The number of ranked teams remains close: SEC (9) and Big Ten (7), but it’s a notable data point in the inevitable conference strength argument. And there’s a chance after this upcoming weekend that the SEC has double-digit teams ranked. 

But this is college football, and all of this could look completely different by this time next week. With multiple, high-leverage games ahead this weekend—highlighted by Ole Miss hosting LSU— games of importance, with lasting impacts will be frequent.