NBA Scores and Standings Still Lopsided Despite Tanking Reforms

One of the major changes to watch in the 2026–27 NBA season is how the new lottery rules affect team play. But through the first three weeks of the season, data has not shown any significant changes in the standings compared to last season.

In May, team owners approved the new “3–2–1” draft lottery system, which will take effect by the 2027 draft. The system further flattens the lottery odds, expands the lottery from 14 to 16 teams, and includes a relegation zone that gives the three teams with the worst records worse odds at the top pick than teams that finished with the fourth-to-tenth worst records.

The belief was that more teams would enter the season with the desire to compete, with some positing that the effect could be a larger middle class and a smaller gap between the teams at the top and bottom of the standings.

But as of Nov. 9, eight teams sit at a .300 win percentage compared to six at the same date last season. Ten teams have a win percentage of .700 or better, compared to six a year ago, while four teams have only one win versus three at this point last year.

The trend of increased blowouts has also continued, with nearly 25% of the 154 regular-season games so far this season decided by at least 20 points. That is more than the 22% of games decided by at least 20 points at the end of last season, which set a record, according to ESPN. 

But there are other factors that can also contribute to an increase in blowouts, including three-point shooting variance to increased offense across the board. And these overall trends could still change given that about 90% of the season remains.

Is It Still Tanking? 

The new lottery system wouldn’t necessarily be a failure, even if the trends hold. Tanking is a philosophical approach to roster construction, and most teams made moves before the season geared toward competing.

The Nets traded for Julius Randle in the offseason, Chicago added All-Star Norman Powell, and the Wizards, Jazz, and Pacers all acquired injured star players last year to bolster this year’s rosters.

These were moves that many of the tanking teams in past years would avoid because they wanted to lose as many games as possible. Wizards guard Bub Carrington admitted as much before this season.

“We’ve all, in a way, been held back just because we were trying to get AJ Dybantsa,” Carrington said. “That’s no secret. That’s no secret. But now, no one has handcuffs. Everyone’s shackles free.”

Injuries, another hot topic early in the season, have contributed to the slow starts of the Pacers (Tyrese Haliburton, Ivica Zubac), Magic (Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs), and Jazz (Jaren Jackson Jr., Lauri Markkanen), teams that were expected to compete this season.  

The next few months should paint a clearer picture of the lottery changes’ impact. Will teams start to shut down starters late in the season? Will losing teams that trade for injured stars, like the Wizards, Jazz, and Pacers last season? 

Those decisions will provide more evidence on the new lottery system’s impact.