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The NBA’s MVP race might get decided on the injury report instead of the court.
On Friday, ESPN’s Tim Bontemps released his second straw poll where he periodically asks media members to submit MVP ballots. The results overwhelmingly favor Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to repeat as the league’s MVP.
But Gilgeous-Alexander is among several leading MVP candidates in danger of losing their award eligibility altogether due to the league’s 65-game participation rule. And even an unlikely winner doesn’t stand to get an immediate contractual benefit from it.
Gilgeous-Alexander has missed 11 games this season and is currently out with an abdominal injury. He is six missed games away from missing the 65-game threshold to remain eligible for the award.
Nikola Jokic (second place in ESPN’s poll), Victor Wembanyama (fourth), Luka Dončić (fifth), Kawhi Leonard, and Anthony Edwards are all a mild injury or illness away from losing their eligibility.
That leaves Pistons star Cade Cunningham as the safest bet to remain eligible to win the award. Cunningham has missed just six games all season, giving him a cushion where he could miss 11 of Detroit’s last 26 games and still be eligible.
A year ago, Wembanyama was the runaway candidate for Defensive Player of the Year before blood clots in his right shoulder prematurely ended his season in February. The award went to Cleveland’s Evan Mobley, who added $9 million to his annual salary as a result.
This past July, Gilgeous-Alexander signed a four-year, $285 million extension with the Thunder, just months after being named the league’s MVP. The deal doesn’t start until the 2027–28 season, giving the Thunder two more years of his rookie extension before paying his next deal. Gilgeous-Alexander is making $38 million this season and $40 million next season before he’s expected to make roughly $61 million in the first year of his new deal.
Jokic declined to sign an extension this past summer for three years and $200 million because he would make more by waiting a year regardless of his MVP status. Jokic can sign a three-year deal this summer worth $290 million.
Cunningham is in the first year of a five-year, $224 million rookie extension he signed with the Pistons in July 2024. He made All-NBA for the first time in his career a year ago, which, like Mobley, added $45 million to the contract. Cunningham was the lone player to get a raise from All-NBA honors last season. He is making $46.3 million this season and the deal came with no options or opt-outs. Cunningham already got the salary bump ahead of this season, which makes an MVP award moot since he can’t get another bump.
Wembanyama is making $13.3 million in the third year of his four-year, $55 million rookie contract. He is expected to sign a five-year, $252 million max contract extension this summer, according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks. But even if Wembanyana wins the MVP this year or makes All-NBA, he would still need to repeat the honor in the 2026–27 season to get a raise. Because he was ineligible for NBA awards a year ago, Wembanyama won’t see the raise come in the first year of his next contract. Should he repeat the honor, it would add $51 million to the deal and make the contract worth $303.3 million in total.
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