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Major League Baseball could be the next league to formally embrace prediction markets, league commissioner Rob Manfred said Thursday.
Speaking at the conclusion of owners meetings held in Palm Beach, Fla., Manfred said the league is considering striking formal deals with prediction markets, following the lead of others such as the NHL and MLS, to help aid in overall game integrity.
Team owners received a presentation about prediction markets, which are exploding in both popularity and controversy. The session focused significantly on the difference between those markets and traditional betting ones.
“We thought it was important for the owners to be updated on why prediction markets are different than sports betting, why we might want to consider being in business with prediction markets in an effort to protect our integrity, to get the kind of protections we need,” Manfred said.
“The regulatory framework, very different. Obviously state by state on the sports betting side, federal on the other.”
A potential prediction-market partnership would be a major shift for MLB. Late last season, the league issued a memo to players about engaging with baseball event contracts on platforms. The memo, obtained exclusively by Front Office Sports, was titled “Re: Baseball Related Prediction Markets.” It firmly instructed players against “participating in ‘prediction markets’ to risk money on any outcome related to baseball games or events,” framing involvement as a violation of its longstanding sports betting policies.
That ban would remain in place even if a league-level deal emerges, but a similar evolution in traditional betting took years to unfold.
For months, the NFL and NBA also stood strong in opposition to the industry despite the NHL forging deep ties—first through partnerships in October with both Kalshi and Polymarket, and then with Kalshi reaching a separate deal with the Blackhawks while Polymarket made its own pact with the Rangers.
Now, MLB isn’t the only league weighing whether it would be smart business to get into bed with prediction markets. The NFL, though it maintains there are still significant unanswered regulatory questions, has signaled it could be swayed in the future. “It’s innovative, that marketplace is dynamic,” EVP Jeff Miller told FOS on Radio Row ahead of Super Bowl LX between the Seahawks and Patriots.
As for the NBA, its assistant general counsel wrote a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in May requesting “specific regulatory provisions that can mitigate the associated integrity risks” of prediction markets. But on Friday, the founders of both Kalshi and Polymarket will speak at the NBA All-Star Tech Summit, an exclusive, invite-only event where business leaders from major technology companies give talks. Their appearances come on the heels of an investment into Kalshi from Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo that made waves when it was announced last Friday.
Elsewhere, MLS has embraced prediction markets through a deal with Polymarket, which also has a separate agreement with UFC.
