Why WNBA Playoffs Will Be Ultimate Test of Caitlin Clark Effect

The WNBA playoffs begin Sunday following the league’s most-watched regular season to date.

This year, ESPN and Scripps Sports’ Ion both reported triple-digit percentage increases in viewership, with the former averaging 1.2 million viewers per game. The 2024 draft class deserves a great deal of credit for the increase, particularly No. 1 pick Caitlin Clark, whose Indiana Fever were participants in the majority of the league’s most-watched games of the year.

The WNBA does face a major obstacle when it comes to maintaining viewership for its playoffs, as the NFL’s Sunday slate runs simultaneously with its playoff opening day. Games 2 and 5 of the WNBA Finals are also scheduled for Sundays.

However, competing against the NFL isn’t new for the WNBA, and, in recent years, the league has seen modest viewership success. Since 2018, ESPN—which airs the WNBA playoffs across ABC, ESPN, and ESPN2—has averaged a 16% viewership increase in the playoffs versus the regular season.

But there is a scenario where the WNBA’s viewership number goes down in the playoffs this year when compared to the regular season, and it’s contingent on Clark and the Fever.

The Real Caitlin Clark Effect

The WNBA will undoubtedly see a year-over-year playoff viewership increase. While Clark has been its biggest draw, the league’s overall popularity has risen significantly, as seen by the several Clark-less games that drew more than one million viewers this year, which not even the WNBA Finals were able to accomplish in 2023.

To top last year’s postseason viewership, the WNBA playoffs only have to draw more than 470,000 viewers per game—lower than this season’s average viewers for ESPN pregame show WNBA Countdown. Assuming the 16% average increase in viewership since 2018, the 2024 playoffs should draw about 1.4 million viewers per game.

But it’s not that simple a prediction.

Of the 40 Fever regular-season games this year, 36 were televised nationally, meaning that most of the regular-season viewership data is skewed to games that featured Clark. But the Fever are the underdogs against the Connecticut Sun in the first round, so the Rookie of the Year favorite could very well be out of the playoffs after just two or three games.

That scenario—one that nearly happened in the 2024 NCAA tournament, if not for Clark and the Iowa Hawkeyes making a run to the championship game—would be the true showcase of Clark’s effect on viewership. 

The WNBA should ultimately be satisfied with the playoff viewership results it will register for this unprecedented season. But for those clamoring for ways to measure Clark’s impact on the league, this postseason could serve as the proper barometer.