Stephen A. Smith Has Fourth-Best Gambling Odds to Be 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee

Want to bet on the chances Stephen A. Smith is the 2028 Democratic nominee for president? There’s a place for that.

As talk continues to percolate about whether the ESPN personality will actually run for the highest office in the land in 2028, prediction market Kalshi now has relatively modest odds for Smith to actually become the Democratic Party’s nominee.

As of noon ET Saturday, a $100 bet on Smith would win you $1,241 if Smith is the nominee. You can also bet “no,” wagering $100 to win $5. The implied odds of Smith earning the nomination are 7.26%. The bet loses if Smith doesn’t run at all or isn’t the nominee.

Smith has the same price as Pete Buttigieg, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Gretchen Whitmer. Only Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, and Wes Moore have shorter odds. Smith has better odds than J.B. Pritzker, Andy Beshear, Kamala Harris, Michelle Obama, Raphael Warnock, John Fetterman, and Mark Cuban. 

Overall, $1.2 million in total has been bet on the Democratic presidential nominee market on Kalshi.

Smith has given mixed signals about a potential run. Speaking with Front Office Sports’ Michael McCarthy at Radio Row during Super Bowl week in New Orleans, Smith said, “I can’t imagine myself ever running. The one thing that will always dissuade me from political office is having to campaign. … Now if I could just get interviewed and get into office, that would be different. But that campaign stuff would kill me because I am a straight shooter.” 

He said he’d love to participate in a presidential debate, but that you “can’t debate a candidate without being a candidate.”  

Yet in a subsequent interview with CNBC’s Alex Sherman, Smith reiterated he would love the job—if he didn’t have to campaign for it.

“If you tell me that I could catapult to the White House, and I could be in a position to affect millions upon millions of lives, not just in America, but the world over, yeah, that’s something that I would entertain,” Smith said.

Longtime Democratic strategist James Carville lambasted Smith for denigrating the bench of the party. 

“When it comes to sports, I find him to be really insightful. When it comes to politics, he don’t know his ass from a hole in the ground,” Carville said on his Politicon podcast earlier this week. “He’s running his goddamn mouth about how he may have to run as a Democrat because there’s no talent. … Stephen, are you kidding me?”

Smith responded directly to Carville on his eponymous podcast, saying in part, “You sound like one of those old curmudgeons that want things to be the way that they used to be. … Do you know what kind of havoc I’d wreak if I sat down for a few weeks and just buried my brain and my face and my mind into the nuances of politics and what transpires on Capitol Hill? Are y’all sure you want that smoke? You sure about that?”