NFL Won’t Allow Prediction-Market Super Bowl Commercials

The rise of prediction markets over the last year has been impossible to ignore, with companies like Kalshi and Polymarket raising billions of dollars and traditional sports betting giants like DraftKings and FanDuel launching their own platforms.

But you won’t see any prediction-market commercials during Super Bowl LX between the Patriots and Seahawks on Feb. 8.

Prediction markets are among the list of “prohibited categories” for the Super Bowl, a source familiar with the matter tells Front Office Sports. Prediction-market commercials have not been allowed on NFL broadcasts all season; they were added to the list of categories the NFL forbids before the kickoff of the 2025 season, the source says.

Although the list of prohibited categories is not public, it’s known to include tobacco, pornography, firearms, and other controversial subjects. 

While the NHL and MLS have embraced prediction markets, the NFL has remained staunchly opposed. The league has expressed concerns about the integrity of the game, saying sports event contracts lack “safeguards” that regulated sports betting has, including “prohibitions on easily manipulated markets” and “official league data requirements.”

The Super Bowl is typically the most-watched TV event of the year. Last year, Fox said the game delivered an average of 127.7 million viewers across all platforms—a record for a single event in U.S. television history. Prices for 30-second ads during the game, which will be broadcast on NBC, have risen as high as $10 million this year. Last year, when the game was broadcast on Fox, roughly a dozen 30-second ad units sold for at least $8 million each.

Companies that have prediction-market platforms—like Kalshi, Polymarket, FanDuel, DraftKings, Coinbase, Robinhood, and more—can certainly afford to buy a Super Bowl ad. The operator of the New York Stock Exchange agreed in October to pour up to $2 billion into Polymarket, while Kalshi in early December announced $1 billion in new funding. DraftKings will have a Super Bowl ad of some kind, a person familiar with the matter tells FOS, and FanDuel will reportedly have an ad before the game. The other companies could buy Super Bowl spots to promote other aspects of their business but not prediction markets.

Notably, sports betting is not one of the prohibited categories, although the league is enforcing limits around the number of ads there will be—GamblingHarm.org reported that no more than six total sports betting ads will be allowed at this year’s Super Bowl.

Kalshi declined to comment on whether it sought a Super Bowl ad, and Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Kalshi has a market allowing users to trade on “which brands will advertise during the Big Game 2026?” As of Thursday afternoon, volume for that market had risen to almost $1.2 million—the leading contenders were Pepsi, Liquid Death, and Him & Hers. Polymarket’s U.S. app does not have any markets for the NFL yet, but its international platform has markets on the NFL and the Super Bowl, as well as a market on “which companies will run ads during Super Bowl LX?” The volume on the latter market—more than $33,000—is a fraction of the Kalshi market. Leading the pack on Polymarket as of Thursday morning were ChatGPT parent OpenAI, Toyota, and State Farm.

Depending on where you live, it’s possible a prediction-market commercial could slip through during the broadcast. Local TV affiliates often have different commercials from the national broadcast. In 2012 and 2013, Old Milwaukee beer ads featuring Will Ferrell ran only in places like Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. Last year, rapper Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, was able to get seemingly innocuous apparel ads aired on three stations owned and operated by Fox in Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and Atlanta, as well as a separately operated affiliate in St. Louis—shortly after the game ended. The website he promoted in the commercials changed from a full apparel shop to just a $20 swastika T-shirt.