NFL Draft’s Recent No. 1 QB Success Raises Stakes for Raiders

Fernando Mendoza, widely projected to be picked by the Raiders at No. 1 in the NFL Draft starting Thursday in Pittsburgh, might not start in Week 1 for Las Vegas. Recent draft history, however, suggests the Indiana superstar will be subjected to almost-immediate expectations of leading a franchise turnaround. 

After winning the 2025 Heisman Trophy and leading the Hoosiers to the College Football Playoff title, Mendoza is in line to become the fourth straight quarterback selected at No. 1—repeating runs that happened between 2018 and 2021, and 2009 to 2012. Unlike several of those quarterbacks that needed multiple years to find sustained success or left the teams that drafted them after not achieving it, the latest group of top-selected signal callers suggests a quicker development path.

Among Mendoza’s immediate predecessors at the top of the NFL Draft board:

• Caleb Williams (No. 1 in 2024, Bears): After a bumpy rookie season in Chicago, the former USC star and 2022 Heisman Trophy winner was a central figure in the Bears’ celebrated turnaround in 2025 that saw the team reach the divisional round of the playoffs. Now carrying the weight of greater expectations, Williams and the Bears are likely to be a prominent team in the NFL’s 2026 broadcast schedule. 
• Bryce Young (No. 1 in 2023, Panthers): The 2021 Heisman Trophy winner and national champion at Alabama has had a particularly tough climb leading a long-struggling Carolina team that won just 36 total games between 2018 and 2024 and has had seven different head coaches over that time. Young also briefly lost his starting role early in the 2024 season. Last year, though, Young led the Panthers to their first playoff berth since 2017, and in the wild-card round nearly upset a Rams team that ultimately reached the NFC championship game. 

The record is more incomplete for last year’s No. 1 draft pick, the Titans’ Cam Ward. The former University of Miami star started all 17 games in 2025 for Tennessee, posting a 3–14 record. Despite that, Ward is likely to be the franchise cornerstone as the Titans open a new stadium next year in Nashville. Newly hired Tennessee head coach Robert Saleh has also raved about Ward’s potential, saying recently that, “I just don’t see him failing.”

All Eyes on Las Vegas

That all raises the stakes for what’s expected of Mendoza. The Raiders have hedged their bets somewhat by recently signing veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. Regardless of who starts right away for Las Vegas, Cousins is likely to act as a mentor to Mendoza, who is in line to sign a four-year, rookie-level contract worth $54.56 million.

“I think it does help the player if they can sit behind a mature adult and watch how they run the show,” said Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak. 

Raiders GM John Spytek, while not overtly confirming choosing Mendoza in a pre-draft press conference, has said, “The best guy will play.” That suggests an open competition for the team’s starting quarterback job. Las Vegas has just one playoff appearance since 2017, and no postseason victories since the team’s run to Super Bowl XXXVII after the 2002 season.

“Ultimately, this is a meritocracy,” Spytek said. “It’s just really hard to play really well at a young age. But we’ve seen plenty of quarterbacks do it recently.”

The accelerating development timeline for many young NFL players mirrors a similarly hastened situation emerging in MLB. 

Though the Raiders have a clear idea of who they plan to take with that No. 1 pick, it’s likely the team will take most, if not all, of the eight minutes allotted to them once it’s formally on the clock.