Friday, October 16, 2026

NBA’s Anti-Tanking Push Hasn’t Stopped a Historically Bad Start

Data through the first four weeks of the season shows futility numbers that have not been replicated in the last two decades.

Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images

Want more from Front Office Sports
in your search results?

Add Front Office Sports on Google

The NBA has made several changes in recent years to curb tanking. But several NBA teams have continued to build rosters designed to lose, leading to historic levels of futility in the early stages of the 2025–26 season.

There are four teams with two wins or fewer through the first 13 games of the season:

  • Pacers (1–13)
  • Wizards (1–12)
  • Pelicans (2–12)
  • Nets (2–11)

This is just the third time that’s happened in NBA history, per data from Sportradar. The two other instances occurred in the 1997–98 and 2004–05 seasons. In the 22 seasons from 2004–05 to this year, only one other time did multiple teams hold a record of 2–11 or worse through 13 games (2007–08). 

Before Brooklyn defeated Washington on Sunday, they shared an identical 1–11 record with Indiana. It was just the second time in NBA history that at least three teams started a season 1–11 or worse. 

Washington and Brooklyn were tanking candidates from the beginning of the season. The two teams are deploying the youngest teams in the NBA, normally a sign that a team is looking to develop young talent rather than shoot for a postseason spot. (Note: The Thunder won the 2024–25 NBA title with the league’s second-youngest roster.)

Neither team’s roster has a “star,” which, according to the league’s definition, is a player who has made the All-Star Game or All-NBA team in at least one of the last three seasons. Khris Middleton is the only player on either team who has ever made the All-Star Game, and the 34-year-old last made it in 2022.

The Wizards’ offseason moves suggested they were ready for another season in the NBA’s doldrums. Their notable move was to add CJ McCollum, a respected NBA veteran, though he’s expected to be traded to a competitive team before the February trade deadline, given he’s 34 and on an expiring contract.

Washington is on pace to finish with its third consecutive season with fewer than 20 wins, which would be the first time that’s happened since “The Process” Sixers from the 2013–14 to 2015–16 seasons. 

Brooklyn hasn’t experienced the same level of incompetence in recent years—and it blew out the Wizards by 23 points when the two met Sunday—but it isn’t necessarily in a better position due to a lack of building blocks.

The Nets surprised the league by selecting five first-round picks in the 2025 draft, but only one, Egor Dёmin, who many deemed was a reach at No. 8, has been in the team’s regular rotation all season. 

Indiana, which made the Finals last year, lost star guard Tyrese Haliburton for this season with an Achilles tendon tear. It wasn’t a tanking candidate to begin the season, but it has been hammered with multiple injuries to other key role players, which could easily turn the season into a gap year.

This would be a similar model to the 2019–20 Warriors, who won just 15 games while dealing with injuries to Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, then won the No. 2 pick in the 2020 NBA draft, which they used to select James Wiseman.

New Orleans is the outlier among the four teams, given that it doesn’t own its 2026 first-round pick after an infamous 2025 draft-night trade with the Hawks. The team fired head coach Willie Green on Saturday after just 12 games. 

Discouraging Strategic Losing

The NBA’s attempts to curb tanking include changing the draft lottery odds. In 2019, the league flattened the odds among all qualified teams and gave the three teams with the lowest odds an equal 14% chance of securing the No. 1 pick. The previous system awarded a 25% chance to the team with the worst record, and the three teams with the worst record had better than a 14% chance at the top selection.

The previous format used the lottery only to select the top three picks, while the remaining teams fell based on record. The new system selects four picks through the lottery, adding more opportunities for teams to jump the line, ostensibly disincentivizing tanking.

The NBA also added a play-in tournament, which meant teams that finished Nos. 9 and 10 in their conference could still qualify for the playoffs. The idea was to motivate teams on the cusp of the play-in tournament to continue competing late in the season rather than tanking for better odds.

The changes have somewhat worked. The Mavericks won the 2025 NBA lottery with a 1.8% chance. Late-season NBA games have had more stakes as teams battled to qualify for the top six—an automatic playoff berth—to avoid the play-in.

But certain organizations continue to believe tanking is the quickest way to the top, especially when they see the performance of teams like the Spurs, who have been selected in the top four in the last three drafts. The 2026 draft is also projected to be one of the best, led by three top prospects: Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, and Cameron Boozer.

Download the FOS App

The business of sports, in your pocket.

QR code to download the app

Scan the QR code to get the app now.

Linkedin
Whatsapp
Copy Link
Link Copied
Link Copied

What to Read

NBA’s In-Game Wearables Push Hinges on How Data Is Used

Adam Silver acknowledges concerns about data being used in contract negotiations.

EuroLeague Sets $9B Valuation Target in 10-Year Plan

The league’s “value is growing very rapidly,” its CFO said.
Aug 3, 2025; College Park, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Dream partner Renee Montgomery watches a game against the Washington Mystics in the second quarter at Gateway Center Arena at College Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Renee Montgomery: Moving Finals Games Was a ‘Group Project’

Montgomery didn’t confirm whether Game 6 would be played at State Farm Arena.

WNBA Finals Ticket Prices Soar Above Last Year’s Levels

The get-in price for Game 1 in San Francisco is over $200.
podcast thumbnail mobile
Front Office Sports Today

10/16/26 – Aikman Eyes Free Agency, CFP Nears 24 Teams, Stoudemire Becomes Cop

0:00

Featured Today

College Flag Football Is Outgrowing Its DIY Era

Women have been building the college game themselves at the club level.
Oct 5, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas arrives at the arena before the Penguins host the Winnipeg Jets at PPG Paints Arena
October 12, 2026

NHL’s New Wave of GMs Is Built Different

“I am in the prediction business,” Devils GM Sunny Mehta tells FOS.
Action Images/Peter Cziborra
October 9, 2026

Is Leicester City’s $264 Million Price Tag Too Rich for Hungry Investors?

After falling from grace, how much is a former top club worth?
Oct 3, 2026; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer waits to run onto the field prior to the game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
October 7, 2026

Who Is Alabama Football in Year 3 Under Kalen DeBoer?

The No. 6 Crimson Tide host No. 2 Georgia on Saturday.
Cubs behind the scenes
October 6, 2026

Hollywood and TikTok: Sports Media’s New ‘Blueprint’

Teams and leagues are pouring money into the quest for fans.
Troy Aikman
Exclusive

Troy Aikman, Dolphins Have No Ongoing Consulting Agreement

Aikman’s official role ended with the coach and GM searches.
October 16, 2026

Jags Eye First London Sweep As U.K. Future Remains Uncertain

The Jaguars host the Texans after beating the Eagles.
October 16, 2026

FIFA to Reconsider Peace Prize After Trump Received Inaugural Award

FIFA’s Football Social Responsibility Committee will assess the prize’s future.
Sponsored

The State of AI in Sports 2026

Front Office Sports and Teamworks reveal how AI is reshaping sports in the first industry-wide report on adoption, investment, and impact.
October 15, 2026

Small-Market Brewers Clinch First NL Pennant

Milwaukee is advancing to its first World Series since 1982.
October 15, 2026

Charley Hull: LPGA Needs to ‘Show More Personalities’

The Englishwoman has one of the sport’s largest social media followings.
October 15, 2026

Jon Rahm’s LIV Settlement Forfeits All Remaining Payments

Rahm earned more than $106 million in prize and bonus money with LIV.
October 14, 2026

NBA Instagram Apparently Hacked, Briefly Promotes Memecoin

The post, part of an apparent hack, was taken down.