How Will the ACC, Pac-12, and Group of 5 Shake Out?

The future of Florida State and Clemson in the ACC has been the biggest remaining question surrounding the latest wave of conference realignment. But there could be some unexpected progress in discussions between the schools and the conference. 

Amid lawsuits among the three parties, the ACC is now said to be exploring a new revenue distribution model that could lead to the schools changing their mind on exploring exits, according to Yahoo Sports. Conference leaders have reviewed a plan to create a separate pot of revenue to be divided based on media value metrics. 

Last year, the ACC approved a plan to financially reward schools for better on-field performance. But further changes to how the ACC doles out its cash could give programs with a larger following like FSU and Clemson more money no matter how much they win.

Best of the Rest

Beyond the ACC’s future, plenty of unknowns remain around how the Pac-12’s rebuild will affect the Group of 5 conferences. 

The Pac-12’s addition of Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, and Fresno State will not only impact the Mountain West, but also have a domino effect across the country. The Pac-12 still needs to add at least two more schools by 2026 to maintain its FBS status, and the Mountain West will want to add to its eight remaining programs, and make sure they don’t exit, too.

Of the 134 current FBS schools, 67 are in Power 4 conferences, and Notre Dame is an independent. That leaves 66 schools to fit into the new “Group of 6,” if you will, assuming the Pac-12 lives on alongside the American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, Mountain West, and Sun Belt. (UConn and UMass are currently independent in football, too.)

Musical Chairs

There are new reports and rumors seemingly every day, but it’s undeniable that nearly every school and conference are at least exploring all their options.

AAC members Memphis and Tulane are said to be the next top targets for the Pac-12, according to The Athletic. Also under consideration are Mountain West schools Air Force and UNLV. Lower on the list is the AAC’s UTSA, North Texas, and South Florida, and the Sun Belt’s Texas State.

However, Air Force is also said to be a serious target of the AAC, per ESPN. That would put the academy in the same conference as its military academy counterparts Army and Navy.

New Mexico State would make geographical sense for the Mountain West, which already includes New Mexico. And FCS programs like North Dakota State, Sacramento State, and Tarleton State (Texas), potentially looking to make the jump to FBS, could be options for multiple conferences looking to add members.