Hours before the Cowboys kicked off their season, America’s Team and Dak Prescott (above) agreed to a four-year, $240 million deal—a $60 million average annual value (AAV) that is the highest in league history.
However, based on recent history, another quarterback should pass Prescott for AAV before the beginning of the 2025 season. Aside from the COVID-19-marred 2020 season, the AAV record has been broken every year by a new player for the last decade. Joe Burrow held the crown last year at $55 million, Aaron Rodgers the year before was at $50 million, and Patrick Mahomes was at $45 million in 2021.
Of course, AAV isn’t the be-all and end-all for player contracts—guaranteed money and overall contract value matter as well. But AAV is an indicator of the market value of quarterbacks every year, so visibility comes with it.
The yearly market reset for quarterback salaries coincides with the league’s rising salary cap, which has gone up an average of 11.9% each season over the last three years. And there’s little reason to believe it won’t shoot up again in 2025.
Who could be next in line to be the highest-paid NFL player?
Next Year’s Options
Brock Purdy: Players are eligible for a contract extension following their third season in the NFL, which is how Burrow received his deal in 2023 and Kyler Murray received one of the league’s biggest contracts the year before. Next year, the 2022 draft class will be eligible for their extensions—but it’s on pace to go down as one of the weakest quarterback classes in league history.
Purdy, the last pick in that 2022 draft, is the only quarterback from that class to start in Week 1 this season. While Purdy still has his critics, he led the 49ers to the Super Bowl last year and has been a consistent winner through his first two seasons. San Francisco’s performance this year could determine whether Purdy surpasses Prescott—perhaps with a deal in the $65 million per year range—or just about matches him, similar to how Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love matched Burrow’s deal this summer.
Josh Allen: The Bills quarterback is unquestionably one of the league’s best, but a six-year, $258 million deal signed in 2021 ($43 million per season) has kept him outside of the top 10 for AAV. While Allen is signed until 2028 and has an opt-out in 2026, Spotrac laid out how the Bills could theoretically completely restructure his deal and offer him a five-year contract that could rival Prescott’s AAV.
However, the likelihood of that happening isn’t high simply because no team has ever agreed to renegotiate a contract with at least four years left. This could be a special case to keep one of the league’s best players happy, but the compromise from Allen may be through a slight AAV discount.
Coming in 2026
C.J. Stroud: Despite just starting his second season, one player from the 2023 draft class who could be in line for a record deal in 2026 is the Texans’ signal-caller. Burrow and Murray both received their extensions after leading their teams to the playoffs, and Stroud already accomplished that feat to cap off one of the greatest rookie seasons in history.
Aaron Rodgers: The four-time MVP may be worth monitoring, depending on the Jets’ performance over the next two seasons. While Rodgers is 40 years old, he’ll be a free agent in 2026, and a heroic run over the next two years could result in a short but expensive deal.
