• Loading stock data...
Tuesday, April 1, 2025
Nominations Are Open for Front Office Sports Honors! Submit Now

Now Evaluating NFL Player Contracts? AI

Jul 25, 2019; Florham Park, NJ, USA; New York Jets running back Le’Veon Bell (26) answers questions from media during New York Jets training camp at Atlantic Health Center. Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports
now-evaluating-nfl-player-contracts-ai
Photo Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

NFL teams pay players a premium to maximize their on-field performance. Now, clubs will be given a new tool to assess how they’re using their resources – in the front-office. Pro Football Focus, a website and data company that provides in-depth, analytical analysis regarding NFL and college football teams, announced that the NFL will start using its newly-created artificial intelligence system that can assess player contract salaries. PFF has contracts with all 32 of the league’s teams.

Going forward, NFL front-office execs can begin finding answers to questions like: how valuable is a running back? What is this player worth in draft capital? And perhaps most importantly, are they paying too much for a player?

Eric Eager, senior data scientist at PFF, took Front Office Sports under the hood of this new offering. With PFF, Eager has concluded that typical of most NFL off-seasons, some teams overspent on running backs — like the New York Jets did with Le’Veon Bell. On the flip side, Eager lauded the Detroit Lions for signing defensive end Trey Flowers away from the New England Patriots for less than a max deal. Despite PFF’s comprehensive analysis, Eager wants everyone to know that it isn’t supposed to intimidate or replace front office execs or scouts. Instead, it’s there to help with their decision making.

READ MORE: Leagues Continuing to Appreciate, Embrace AI

Front Office Sports: What is the criteria that PFF uses to evaluate valuable contracts compared to [contracts] where the player definitely won that deal?

Eric Eager: It’s basically like: what would our projected value be for him, and then what did he end up getting is the clear determination there. Now there’s some nuance to that because the salary cap is probably going to increase so a guy who might be “overpaid” now, three years into his deal he might be underpaid because the entire tide is rising. His percentage of the cap is too high now, but three years in, you have to make a projection about, “Okay, is that player going to continue having that value for his team?” Some players will fall off right away and even though the market increases and their salaries [are] a smaller fraction of the market, they still might not be valuable enough to warrant where some players — mostly quarterbacks — will likely maintain their value throughout their entire deal.

Generally speaking though, for us it’s usually about two processes: is the player good and is the player adding wins to this team? There are a lot of teams that will sign players that either aren’t good or, this is generally the case, they’re good, but they do something that’s not extremely valuable. They’re paying a premium for something that’s ancillary to the entire process of winning games, which is really the most important thing.

FOS: Given this advanced technology that PFF created, how do you anticipate front-office people and agents [will react] to its take on these player contracts?

Eager: I think it’s probably going to be similar to the way that they use our grades now – I think it’s probably going to be a part of the conversation. I don’t think any team is ever going to do this fully from an analytics or AI [perspective] or whatever the buzz word is. I think it’s mostly going to be a point of all the time. When you’re a decision maker, you’re looking for independent opinions, because the wisdom of the crowds suggests that the average of a bunch of independent decisions makes the best decision. Oftentimes in a team setting, there are a ton of incentives for people to think that decisions that are correlated with the people that they work for because you want to keep your job. At PFF, as an independent entity, us providing an independent opinion would be extremely valuable to the league because it would aid in the construction of a good, sound, data-driven decision — with PFF being one of those prominent seats at the table.

FOS: Have you received any complaints from front-office people or agents who perhaps feel that PFF undermines their work?

Eager: Generally not. I think that was something that was more historical — since we have all 32 teams for a client, we know in some sense our place in the conversation. I think that the complaints are few and far between. Now feedback in terms of how our methods are coming in are or being implemented is always welcome on our end and we certainly have taken the teams feedback and used it to our advantage at times.

READ MORE: TrackMan: The Danish Golf Startup Behind Baseball’s Latest Change

FOS: How do you find that balance between advancing the sport with technology but also preserving that human touch that’s associated with front office dealings and scouting analysis?

Eager: At its core, our process is scouting-based. Our people that watch the games and develop the grades are doing exactly that. The feedback that we get most strongly is from scouts and teams. It’s at our very core – we respect football enough to test their hypothesis as opposed to our own. That, I think, is the key balance that we have to strike.

FOS: What impact do you think this wave of AI and analytics is having on football?

Eager: I think that the football analytics community as a whole is really starting to come to a conclusion on what wins football games as opposed to what people historically thought won football games, or what was impressive about football players. To me that’s the biggest takeaway – that there are certain things that we forever thought won football games or were the most important things about football that simply aren’t. That to me is the biggest thing and everything else falls from this idea of learning what wins football games because ultimately, that’s what the teams are playing for.

Linkedin
Whatsapp
Copy Link
Link Copied
Link Copied

What to Read

Clark Hunt: Chiefs Will Decide on Stadium Plans by Summer

The Chiefs owner also addresses TV, Patrick Mahomes, and the White House.
Oct 20, 2024; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; General view of a television camera operator during the game between the Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.

Sources: NFL ‘Virtual Lock’ to Opt Out of Media-Rights Deals

Data continues to support an early opt-out of the league’s rights.
exclusive

NFL Considers Backers for Pro Flag Football Leagues Ahead of LA28

The 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles are seen as a likely watershed event.

Jets Offer Most Employees Buyouts

The team offered nearly 70% of its workforce severance packages.

Featured Today

Brehanna Daniels

NASCAR Pit Crew Member Brehanna Daniels Didn’t Know She’d Be a Trailblazer

The first Black female tire changer didn’t know she’d be a trailblazer.
Columbia, SC - February 16, 2025 - Colonial Life Arena: Rebecca Lobo and Ryan Ruocco during a regular season game.
March 30, 2025

Inside Ryan Ruocco’s Rapid Rise to ESPN’s Top Voice of Women’s Hoops

The top voice became “quickly addicted” to calling the women’s game.
Mar 27, 2025; Newark, NJ, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide guard Chris Youngblood (8) and the Alabama Crimson Tide bench celebrate during the second half against the Brigham Young Cougars during an East Regional semifinal of the 2025 NCAA tournament at Prudential Center.
March 29, 2025

How Alabama Became College Basketball’s Newest Juggernaut

The Crimson Tide have found success rivaling their historic football program.
Kendall Coyne Schofield
March 25, 2025

Kendall Coyne Schofield Wants More for the Next Wave of Mom-Athletes

The Walter Cup–winning Frost captain says small changes mean “everything.”

UFC’s Vegas Sphere Fight Should Set Records

The MMA fight has big aspirations and a budget to match.
August 13, 2024

Duael’s One-On-One Racing Brackets Are Yet Another Stab at Saving Track

Duael will debut in March 2025 with the inaugural Duael 100.
September 8, 2024

Guardian Caps Make NFL Debut

Multiple NFL players wore Guardian Caps over their helmets Sunday.
Sponsored

How UBS Crafts Impactful Partnerships Across Sports, Arts, and Culture

As UBS continues to expand its impressive array of sports and entertainment partnerships, the company solidifies its position as a leader in wealth management.
August 11, 2024

Guardian Caps Have Arrived in the NFL—Ahead of Schedule

Colts star Jonathan Taylor strapped one on for Sunday’s preseason game.
August 5, 2024

How Omega Timing Determined Noah Lyles Won Olympic Gold

Omega touches every corner of the Olympics.
The Adidas ball has changed over the years.
July 25, 2023

The Most Advanced Tech at the Women’s World Cup Might Surprise You

This year’s OCEAUNZ introduces connected ball technology to the women’s game.
Sponsored

Rewriting the Sports Media Playbook

WSC’s highlight automation improved Clemson’s content strategy and overall growth.