Sportsbooks, Prediction Markets Split on Payouts After Senegal’s AFCON Win Overturned

A new winner has been declared for the Africa Cup of Nations final that happened in January, and betting platforms and prediction markets are split over how to handle the ruling.

Judges from the Confederation of African Football’s appeal board overturned Senegal’s win on Tuesday and instead declared Morocco tournament champions, a stunning move that has sent ripples through the sport.

During the match, Senegal coach Pape Thiaw led his players in a roughly 15-minute walkout after VAR awarded Morocco a penalty shot during stoppage time, and fans tried to storm the field. After a disastrous penalty shot by Morocco, Senegal won the controversial match 1–0 in extra time.

Now, CAF says that Morocco won 3–0, citing tournament regulations that dictate a team forfeits if it leaves the pitch before the end of a match. CAF already issued fines and suspensions to both federations, players on both teams, and Thiaw in January. The Senegalese Football Federation said it will appeal the ruling to the Court of Arbitration for Sport, and the Senegalese government has called for an investigation into corruption at CAF.

The ruling has left sportsbooks and prediction markets split over how to handle the unconventional victory.

Kalshi users had traded nearly $2 million on the match, and competitor Polymarket international saw close to $3 million in trading volume. Users on both platforms left comments asking for refunds following the ruling.

Kalshi says it will not be rewarding users who put money on Morocco. “The market resolution stands as is—there is a specific rule that accounts for this in the contract that states if the result of the achievement is reversed or changed after the contract expires, it does not affect the resolution,” a Kalshi spokesperson tells Front Office Sports. A spokesperson for Polymarket did not comment.

A spokesperson for BetMGM tells FOS that the platform also will not be changing any payouts. “Per house rules, all bets are settled based on the results on the pitch/field,” the spokesperson says.

On the flipside, the Irish sportsbook Paddy Power, owned by FanDuel parent Flutter Entertainment, posted that it has paid out bets for users who wagered on Morocco, calling it a “JUSTICE PAYOUT.”

British platform Sky Bet posted that it has “now paid out on Morocco as winners in the outright market.”

Fanatics Sportsbook is going down the middle, honoring wagers on the original result “per our House rules,” a spokesperson tells FOS, and now paying out any straight or parlay bets that would’ve hit with a Morocco win.

Spokespeople for FanDuel and DraftKings did not respond to requests for comment.

Both teams are still heading to the World Cup this summer, and the decision does not impact their standing in the tournament.

The decision is the latest highly controversial move by CAF this month after the federation postponed the women’s tournament, WAFCON, 12 days before the opening match.