ACC’s Messy Title Game Tiebreaker May Keep It Out of CFP

The ACC is facing a Doomsday scenario: potentially missing out on the College Football Playoff, after a complicated tiebreaker scenario kept the conference’s highest-ranked team out of its championship game.

No. 16 Virginia (10–2) will face unranked Duke (7–5) Saturday night in Charlotte for the ACC title (rankings via the AP Top 25 poll; this week’s CFP rankings will be revealed Tuesday). 

If the Cavaliers win—most sportsbooks have them as a slight 2.5-point betting favorite—they are expected to make the CFP as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. If the Blue Devils win, though, higher-ranked conference champions from the American and Sun Belt could earn automatic bids over the ACC’s champion. 

The CFP awards automatic selections to the five highest-ranked conference champions and the next seven highest-ranked teams, meaning Power 4 leagues are not guaranteed a spot.

Messy Situation

Duke won a five-way tiebreaker over No. 12 Miami (10-2), No. 24 Georgia Tech (9–3), Pitt (8–4), and SMU (8–4), all of which had a 6–2 record in conference play.

Miami has been on the CFP bubble all season, but is now left hoping for an unlikely at-large bid from the selection committee. Georgia Tech suffered a fatal loss two weeks ago to Pitt, which on Saturday had its own ACC championship dreams ended with a loss to the Hurricanes. SMU’s upset loss at Cal on Saturday night kept them out of the conference title game, and was the final piece of the puzzle to let Duke in.

Who’s In? Who’s Out?

The Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12 championship games all include teams ranked inside the top 11, leaving no worry about CFP bids for those power conferences, not to mention further at-large selections.

The winner of the American championship game between No. 20 North Texas (11–1) and No. 21 Tulane (10–2) is likely to earn one of the five automatic bids. But there is also a second non-Power 4 conference that could send its champion to the CFP. No. 19 James Madison (11–1) is a 21.5-point betting favorite over Troy in the Sun Belt championship game. 

This season’s CFP rankings have not included multiple non-Power 4 teams in the same week, and last week, Tulane was the lone ranked non-Power 4 team at No. 24. If Duke were to win the ACC championship game and JMU the Sun Belt title, the CFP selection committee would be forced to either give two automatic bids to non-Power 4 teams or give an automatic bid to an 8–5 Duke team.