• Loading stock data...
Monday, February 17, 2025

Winter Storm Has Thrown NFL Betting, Fantasy Football Into Chaos

  • At least seven Week 16 games have betting totals below 40.
  • “The totals opened and fell off a cliff,” sports weather expert Kevin Roth says.
Players warming up in snow for NFL game in Buffalo
Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

A barrage of extreme winter weather is making its way across the United States — and the NFL’s special slate of Christmas Eve and Day games is set to take the brunt of it.

With the precipitous rise of legalized sports betting and the fantasy football playoffs taking the forefront at this time of year, there’s simply too much money on the line to be ignored. Sportsbooks are paying attention.

“The totals opened and fell off a cliff,” RotoGrinders chief meteorologist Kevin Roth says.

Indeed, at least seven games have totals below 40 — and Saturday’s Saints-Browns game currently stands at an extremely low 32.5.

Millions of fantasy football managers are also starting or are in the thick of their playoffs, meaning there are agonizing decisions to be made.

As such, the demand for “sports weather” experts is increasing — and a weekend like this is when people in his very specific line of work shine.

“This is my Super Bowl,” Roth told Front Office Sports. “The need for sports weather and the desire for sports weather is only growing, and I’m very pleased to be in the situation that I’m in with the current sports betting climate.”

Roth began his career as a TV news meteorologist working at local stations in Texas and Louisiana before he was approached by RotoGrinders to be their chief meteorologist — a job he didn’t even know existed in the sports space.

Each week, he analyzes every outdoor game, rating them on a color-coded scale that predicts how much scoring the game will have based on the weather.

Dallas Cowboys receiver Michael Gallup completes touchdown catch while jumping over Indianapolis Colts defender

NFL Streams Live Game on Sportsbook App for First Time

Caesars Sportsbook users can bet on NFL games while watching the stream.
December 5, 2022

He has also worked to clear up several misconceptions about the NFL as it pertains to weather — including which weather phenomenon plays the biggest role in the outcomes of games.

“The answer is wind by a mile,” says Roth. “It’s wind, then there’s a line, then there’s another line, and then it’s heavy rain.

“Most weather variables — whether it’s the rain or the snow or the temperature — impact both teams equally. But wind is the only one that impacts the offense because the offense is the only team that’s throwing the ball through the air.”

Rain and snow, he adds, end up affecting offenses and defenses effectively equally: While they make it harder to throw and catch the ball on offense, they make it harder to get foot traction and make tackles on defense.

Roth is also trying to bust the myth that teams that play their home games in frequently cold and/or snowy locales — such as the Buffalo Bills — somehow have an advantage.

“It’s one of my least favorite narratives out there,” he says. “If there is an edge, it’s so slight that it’s not a bettable edge. I don’t think that Buffalo is inherently better at playing in the cold than warm weather teams.”

So which of this weekend’s wintery games will be affected most by the conditions? Roth has three at the top of his board.

It begins Thursday night at MetLife Stadium, where the New York Jets will be taking on the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars in a constant rainfall with temperatures forecasted in the 40s.

“My general rule is don’t trust a rain forecast until an hour before the game,” says Roth. “But just looking at models this go around, the rain is so widespread across the entire Northeast that it looks like it’s going to pour… It’s just kind of a nasty game in New [Jersey].”

Next, Saturday’s game in Chicago between the Bears and Bills will see 20 mph winds that will make a chilly 10 degrees feel like negative-10. Roth expects Justin Fields and Josh Allen to have difficulty throwing the ball — and defenses to stack the box.

Toronto FC and DC United squads walk in front of Fanatics advertisement

Fanatics Could Kick Off Major Sports Betting Push in January

Fanatics could make its long-awaited move into sports betting in January.
December 12, 2022

But easily the ugliest game on the slate weather-wise — “in a tier of its own,” according to Roth — is the Saturday contest in Cleveland between the Browns and the New Orleans Saints.

“It’s cold. There could be some blowing snow. But the main issue is 20-30 mph sustained winds,” he says. “Wind gusts are probably over 40 mph. It’s so windy that I just don’t see a viable route for these teams to move the ball consistently.

“It’s so windy that if you hand it off three times and then just punt it, I don’t even know what direction the punt is going to go — and I don’t think they do either.”

From a fantasy perspective, Roth generally recommends the tried-and-true method of playing your studs regardless of weather — but a game like New Orleans-Cleveland may constitute an exception to that rule.

So while bettors and fantasy players will obsess over sharp movement or public plays, this weekend at least, the biggest indicator is Mother Nature.

Linkedin
Whatsapp
Copy Link
Link Copied
Link Copied

What to Read

Notre Dame Latest CFB Team to Hire GM From NFL

Notre Dame has hired a Lions front office executive.

DraftKings Turns First Full-Year Profit, Stock Up 47% in 2025

The company’s sports betting business continues to grow despite headwinds.
Dec 22, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) runs with the football before the game against the San Francisco 49ers at Hard Rock Stadium.

After Months of Trash-Talking, Noah Lyles and Tyreek Hill Agree to Race

The Olympic sprinter and NFL wideout will race after months of talks.

Giants Open to Selling Minority Stake; Will Eli Manning Be Involved?

A forthcoming deal could set a record for a sports team valuation.

Featured Today

Feb 15, 2025; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; [Imagn Images direct customers only] Team United States forward Matthew Tkachuk (19) and Team Canada forward brandon Hagel (38) fight in the first period during a 4 Nations Face-Off ice hockey game at the Bell Centre.

Inside the Push for the NHL’s Next Era of International Competition

Players have been clamoring, and the league is all in.
Aug 11, 2024; Paris, France; Medals are carried out on Louis Vuitton trays after the women's volleyball gold medal match during the Paris 2024 Olympic Summer Games at South Paris Arena
February 16, 2025

LVMH’s New Push: World’s Most Powerful Luxury Group Is Coming for Sports

LVMH is making long-term deals—and they’re not done.
Feb 18, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Eastern Conference guard Damian Lillard (0) of the Milwaukee Bucks reacts after a play during the second half of the 73rd NBA All Star game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
February 15, 2025

The NBA’s Latest Attempt To Solve the All-Star Game Conundrum

A new mini-tournament on a lame-duck network may not solve the problem.
Jan 9, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) checks Pittsburgh Penguins center Sidney Crosby (87) during the third period at PPG Paints Arena
February 11, 2025

‘Important’ 4 Nations Face-Off Can Be NHL’s All-Star Antidote

“The stars have been lobbying the league for an event like this.”
Jon Batiste

Sportsbooks Split on Hotly Disputed Super Bowl National Anthem Prop Bet

FanDuel and DraftKings split on the national anthem duration.
Josh Allen
February 6, 2025

Polymarket Whale Made Huge Late Bets On Josh Allen Winning NFL MVP

Allen’s odds skyrocketed from the 50s to over 90% on Thursday afternoon.
Andy Reid
February 9, 2025

Sportsbooks Call for Tighter Regulations on Prediction Markets

Sports betting and sports event contracts are treated differently—for now.
Sponsored

How UBS Crafts Impactful Partnerships Across Sports, Arts, and Culture

As UBS continues to expand its impressive array of sports and entertainment partnerships, the company solidifies its position as a leader in wealth management.
Feb 5, 2025; New Orleans, LA, USA; Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles helmets at the Caesars Superdome prior to Super Bowl LIX.
February 6, 2025

Amid ‘Record’ Super Bowl Betting, Market’s Two Largest Forces Still Reign

FanDuel and DraftKings still dominate the ever-expanding space.
Aug 22, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora (13) talks with home plate umpire Pat Hoberg as Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) adjusts his PitchCom device during the second inning at Minute Maid Park.
February 3, 2025

MLB Fires Umpire Pat Hoberg: Third Gambling Scandal in Under a Year

The league terminates the umpire for failing to uphold the game’s integrity.
Jan 26, 2025; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) walks off the field after winning the NFC Championship game against the Washington Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field.
February 3, 2025

Robinhood Suspends Rollout of Super Bowl Betting After CFTC Request

Robinhood has suspended trading of event contracts on the Super Bowl.
Terry Rozier
January 30, 2025

Feds Investigating Terry Rozier for NBA Point Shaving

Rozier is eyed in the same investigation that snagged Jontay Porter.