• Loading stock data...
Monday, June 23, 2025

We’re One Year Out From a 12-Team CFP. It’s Anyone’s Guess What That Looks Like

  • College football’s postseason field will finally expand next season, though some of the most crucial details haven’t been ironed out.
  • On-campus logistics for the first round, media rights, and revenue distribution are murky.
Jan 1, 2024; Pasadena, CA, USA; Michigan Wolverines defensive lineman Kris Jenkins (94) and defensive lineman Cam Goode (99) celebrate on the field after defeating the Alabama Crimson Tide in the 2024 Rose Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at Rose Bowl.
Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports
Exclusive

Chip Caray Will Not be Suspended for Accidental Homophobic Slur: Sources

The verbal stumble was followed by over 30 seconds of silence.
Read Now
June 21, 2025 |

A subgroup of the College Football Playoff first presented a 12-team model in June of 2021. It took an entire year for the ultimate decision makers, the Board of Managers, to agree to it. The process was slowed by the drama surrounding that summer’s round of conference realignment—but finally, on the Friday before Labor Day Weekend of 2022, the CFP announced it had voted on expansion starting in 2026 at the latest, when its deal with ESPN expires. By that December, the date had been pushed up to 2024.

But now, less than a year away from that first 12-team postseason, the CFP still hasn’t finalized some of the most important details of the transition. The reason: conference realignment. The Pac-12’s demise this summer created a domino effect of complications, leaving a list of unresolved issues that includes everything from revenue distributions to the selection process. “We’re cutting [that] list,” says the CFP’s executive director, Bill Hancock, who will soon hand over the reins to Lieutenant General Richard Clark. But just a year away from kickoff, that list remains a long one. 

Rules of Engagement

Before the Pac-12 collapsed, the CFP had agreed upon a basic “6+6” qualification structure, wherein a half dozen conference champions would receive automatic bids and at-large teams would fill the other spots. The top four teams in a CFP ranking system would receive byes in the first round. 

That structure meant that superleagues like the SEC could send as many as seven teams to the playoff, if they had the rankings to show for it, while at least one Group of 5 conference champion was guaranteed a spot, paving the way for the Cinderella effect that has dazzled in March Madness but mostly eluded the CFP.

Going forward, however, there may only be four Power leagues. The Pac-12 leftovers, Oregon State and Washington State, agreed to play a conference schedule with the Mountain West next year, though they won’t participate in the conference championship. It seems inconceivable that the new Pac-2 would get its own CFP slot—and commissioners have already suggested declining an automatic bid for any league without eight members. (That committee includes 10 FBS commissioners plus Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick—thought it’s unclear how long George Kliavkoff, the Pac-12’s commissioner, will remain on the board. The Board of Managers, which makes final decisions, is made up of university presidents.)

The proposed solution: adjust to a “5+7” format to accommodate four Power conference champions, one Group of 5 champion, and seven at-large bids. The committee may take a vote on Monday, before the national championship game, Yahoo Sports reported, to confirm this format and the rule about eight FBS teams. 

Big Games on Campus

The biggest logistical challenge of the 12-team playoff, Hancock says, will be the four inaugural first-round games, each of which will be hosted by the campus of the higher seed.

The timing here is particularly difficult. The 12-team CFP starts a week earlier than the current model, and ends a week later. Signing day (which takes place in the middle of December) would run right up against the first round of the postseason—which wasn’t an issue with the four-team model. Also: The host schools conceivably could not know for sure whether they’re hosting until the bracket comes out, giving them just a week to finish planning.

As Tennessee coach Josh Heupel asked late last month: “Everything that is going on in those first couple weeks of December, how do you add in preparation for a game of that size and magnitude?”

The CFP does not intend to leave schools scrambling to put on this show. Hancock says his staff is spending the bulk of its time on planning these games. “Ticket sales, lodging, support on campus during December—just things that have never happened before… None of it is insurmountable,” he says. “But that’s where the work will be done.” 

Cashing In

The CFP’s prize distribution system was problematic even before the Pac-12 broke up. This season, the organization will award about $80 million to each Power 5 conference, to be split up in whichever way they chose, and $100 million to be split equally among the Group of Five. But the conferences demanded that system change for the 12-team playoff. Power conferences wanted to ensure that distributions wouldn’t be diluted now that they’ve expanded, as multiple outlets previously reported, and some Power 5 administrators complained that all Power leagues get the same amount regardless of how many teams qualify. The CFP has promised to placate them on these issues by making distributions per-school, rather than per-conference. But the much-less-leveraged Group of 5 is stuck with the same distributions.

Now that the Pac-12 is down to two schools, there’s another problem: The leftover universities would only receive their two per-school distributions. And even those allocations aren’t guaranteed until the committee comes to some agreement. 

In another realignment-related wrinkle: As other reports have pointed out, SMU will go from the AAC to the ACC next year, becoming the only Group of 5 school to jump to a Power conference in this new CFP era. And they may not get a full Power 5 distribution immediately. The board might take a vote during Monday’s meeting, Yahoo Sports reported.

This model is only temporary. The CFP will go back to the drawing board completely on distributions in 2026 after it inks a new media contract.

A New Deal

Despite all these unknowns, one thing is certain: The CFP is going to cash in big on its next media rights deal. The current contract with ESPN pays out an average of $470 million per year. The next deal, which would start in 2026, will likely be worth at least double that amount, if not more. 

This past fall, multiple networks and streamers—including NBC, ESPN, Fox, Warner Bros. Discovery, Amazon, and Apple—expressed interest in buying a slice of the playoff, as Front Office Sports previously reported. A new deal would likely feature more than one network, which could mean a championship game that rotates through a mix of broadcasters and/or streamers. Fox is gearing up for a big push for some—or all—of the media rights, setting up a potential showdown between the two members of college football’s broadcast duopoly, as FOS recently reported. (ESPN, for its part, had no comment on this development.)

The CFP has time to work that all out. But in the interim, they have to ink a small media contract for their 2024 and 2025 first-round games, which, currently, no one has the rights to. (Because the quarterfinals will be played as New Year’s Six games, ESPN has absorbed those rights.) These conversations are ongoing, and ESPN is still in the mix, says Nick Dawson, ESPN’s Senior VP of College Sports Programming. But another network could swoop in. 

This all leaves the CFP with plenty to sort out between now and next December. But Hancock expects the CFP to have all the details ironed out by a familiar deadline: Labor Day.

Linkedin
Whatsapp
Copy Link
Link Copied
Link Copied

What to Read

Thunder Win NBA Finals Behind Young, Deep, and Cheap Roster

The Thunder’s young and cheap roster won its first title Sunday.

Pacers Lose Haliburton in NBA Finals—and Possibly for a Season

Haliburton entered the game with a right calf strain he played Game 6 with.
Mar 15, 2025; Fort Worth, TX, USA; UAB Blazers forward Yaxel Lendeborg (3) dribbles the ball upcourt against the North Texas Mean Green during the first half at Dickies Arena

NIL Is Shrinking the Pool of NBA Draft Entrants

Agents are now advising many players to stay in school.
exclusive

Chip Caray Will Not be Suspended for Accidental Homophobic Slur: Sources

The verbal stumble was followed by over 30 seconds of silence.

Featured Today

Apr 24, 2025; Green Bay, WI, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions defensive end Abdul Carter on the red carpet before the 2025 NFL Draft at Lambeau Field

‘More Is More’: The Elite Luxury Jewelers Decking Out Athletes

Meet the elite group of luxury designers crafting the biggest statement pieces.
Dec 5, 2024; Miami, FL, USA; FIFA president Gianni Infantino presents the FIFA Club World Cup trophy during the Club Word Cup draw at Telemundo Studios.
June 15, 2025

Revamped Club World Cup Is FIFA’s Billion-Dollar Gamble

The revamped soccer event debuts amid controversy.
Jun 10, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; United States head coach Mauricio Pochettino stands during the anthem against the Switzerland during the first at Geodis Park
June 14, 2025

Gold Cup Is Complicated for USMNT—but U.S. Soccer Has Its Eyes on..

Uncertain tournament success isn’t fazing forward-looking U.S. soccer.
Jan 24, 2017; Davidson, NC, USA; The Davidson Wildcats student section cheers during the first half against the Duquesne Dukes at McKillop Court at John M. Belk Arena. Davidson defeated Duquesne 74-60.
June 6, 2025

Every College Wants a Flashy Basketball GM Hire Right Now

The role is more important than ever, and the definition is ever-evolving.
Wisconsin cornerback Xavier Lucas (6) is shown during the first quarter of their game against South Dakota Saturday, September 7 , 2024 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin.

Wisconsin Sues Miami for ‘Tampering’ With Football Transfer

Xavier Lucas signed NIL deals in Madison before transferring to Miami.
Washington's Ben Gorsage, right, and Orland Park Sandburg's Mateo Ramiro-Garcia tangle at the start of the Class 3A state 800-meter run Saturday, May 31, 2025 at Eastern Illinois University in Charleston. Gorsage took third place, followed by Ramiro-Garcia in fourth.
June 19, 2025

Dozens of Olympic Sports Have Been Cut in Wake of House v...

Tennis, track and field, and swimming and diving appear heavily impacted.
June 19, 2025

Omaha Delivers Again: LSU, Coastal Carolina Set for CWS Showdown

LSU and Coastal Carolina begin their three-game series Saturday.
Sponsored

Game On: Portfolio Players Stories, Brought to You by E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley

Ted Leonsis unpacks basketball’s global rise, media rights, and portfolio ownership.
Jun 16, 2025; Omaha, Neb, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks starting pitcher Gage Wood (14) celebrates completing a no hitter against the Murray State Racers at Charles Schwab Field.
June 17, 2025

College World Series Enters Cinderella Era

A series of upsets gives the fast-growing event a new look this year.
Jun 14, 2025; Omaha, Neb, USA; LSU Tigers starting pitcher Kade Anderson (32) pitches against the Arkansas Razorbacks during the seventh inning at Charles Schwab Field.
June 16, 2025

How College Athlete Buyouts Could Work in the Revenue-Sharing Era

The buyouts could put both players and schools at a disadvantage.
Texas' Sam Hurley watches the announcement of the competitors in the high jump at the 2023 NCAA outdoor track and field championships, June 9, 2023 at Mike A. Myers Stadium in Austin, Texas.
June 16, 2025

Revenue-Sharing Model Could Boost Programs in Football’s Shadow

“We’re not getting paid the millions of dollars that football is.”
UT
June 12, 2025

Zakai Zeigler Denied Injunction for Fifth Year at Tennessee

The former Tennessee guard sued the NCAA over potential lost NIL earnings.