• Loading stock data...
Wednesday, October 8, 2025

All Signs Point to Trump Admin OK’ing Kalshi’s Sports Contracts

State regulators want to rein in Kalshi’s sports “prediction” offerings, but all signs are pointing to the Trump administration siding with the exchange platform. A legal battle will likely ensue.

Potawatomi Sportsbook patrons watch the University of Wisconsin men play UCLA on Friday, March 14, 2025. The venue is open for the first time during March Madness and is expecting to be busy over the next few weeks in Milwaukee.
Angela Peterson/Imagn Images

Kalshi started in 2018 as an exchange platform where users could trade on macro-economic events like inflation or whether the government might shut down. However, the company has recently attracted more attention—and controversy—over its sports “prediction” offerings, which some states view as too similar to sports betting. 

But evidence suggests the Trump administration is on team Kalshi, setting up a future legal showdown over whether states or the federal government have the power to regulate prediction markets that offer sports contracts.

Regulators in at least Nevada, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Ohio have tried to stop Kalshi from offering sports event contracts. Kalshi argues that although event contracts look a lot like sports betting, they are not. Users can put money on everything from which team will win the “pro men’s basketball championship”—the current favorites are the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics—to who will win the Masters Tournament, with Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy as the frontrunners.

“It’s just word play,” Robert Walker, director of operations at ARMS, which helps retail sportsbooks manage potential risks to their business, tells Front Office Sports

“Basically sounds to me like lawyers are making millions by changing some verbiage,” says Walker, who for more than a decade was the sportsbook director for MGM Mirage’s Las Vegas casinos. “I don’t think they can distinguish their offerings from sports betting.”

Under normal circumstances, a company like Kalshi might be anxiously biting its nails as more states add to the pile of pushback. But Kalshi has friends in important places, including Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, who last year was announced as a strategic advisor to the company. Brian Quintenz, a former commissioner at the Commodities Futures Trading Commission who was later on the Kalshi board, is nominated by President Trump to be the CFTC’s next chair.

The CFTC said in February it was planning a roundtable, which is still not yet on the calendar, on this subject, with the aim of developing a “robust administrative record” that will inform its “approach to regulation and oversight of prediction markets, including sports-related event contracts.” 

But Daniel Wallach, a U.S. gaming law and sports betting attorney who leads the law firm Wallach Legal LLC, believes the roundtable “is all for show,” and that the “preordained result” will be Kalshi’s sports contracts getting a green light from the federal government. 

‘On Our Way to a Heavyweight Court Battle’

On social media, Wallach highlighted comments that have been made by Quintenz, as well as some from acting CFTC chairman Caroline Pham, which essentially state their opinion that all events are commodities, and therefore contracts on future events are all commodity futures contracts. In particular, Wallach noted comments Quintenz made back in 2021, when he insisted that NFL games are a commodity and said it would be unconstitutional not to approve the offering of event contracts based on the outcomes of sporting events.

In Wallach’s view, this all but guarantees that “event contracts based on sporting event outcomes will be approved by this CFTC.”

“I think we’re well on our way to a heavyweight court battle between the federal government and states and tribes over whether a federal agency, rather than Congress, can open the floodgates for the nationwide expansion of sports betting in all 50 states in one fell swoop through a mere agency rulemaking process,” he tells FOS

If that does occur, it would essentially usurp state regulation over sports betting, which is a power that has historically been in the hands of the states, he explains. The legalization of sports betting is tied to a 2018 U.S. Supreme Court decision striking down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act. In the years since that ruling, sports betting has become normalized in the U.S., and as of today, 39 states and Washington, D.C., have legalized some sort of sports betting.

When it comes to the eventual court fight, there are two very important Supreme Court decisions that could come into play. First, in 1984’s Chevron USA Inc. v. Natural Resources Defense Council Inc., the court issued a landmark decision establishing the principle of Chevron deference, which means that when a law is ambiguous, courts should defer to a government agency’s interpretation of the law, as long as it’s reasonable. 

In 2023, however, the court issued a split decision in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, with the majority leaning toward reaffirming Chevron, but signaling that they may revisit the doctrine in the future. So while it didn’t overturn Chevron, it opened the door for future reconsideration.

“As a result, federal courts no longer give deference to agency interpretations of federal statutes,” Wallach says. “So, while incoming CFTC Chair Quintenz may wish to equate football with a commodity, it is the federal courts which will have the final word here.”

Representatives for the White House, the CFTC, and Kalshi did not immediately respond to a request for comment Thursday.

Linkedin
Whatsapp
Copy Link
Link Copied
Link Copied

What to Read

MLB’s Rare October Day: Four Playoff Games, Four Possible Clinchers

Four separate clinching opportunities are available during the day.

‘Absolutely Ridiculous’: Trump Blasts NFL Over Bad Bunny Choice

The president predictably panned the NFL’s selection of the Puerto Rican superstar.
Maverick Carter, LeBron James
exclusive

New International Basketball League Plans Launch, Without Maverick Carter

The venture plans to launch men’s and women’s leagues next fall.
Oct 4, 2025; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers defensive back DeShon Singleton (8) celebrates after making an interception during the game against Michigan State at Memorial Stadium.
exclusive

Big Ten Considering Investment From California Pension Fund

In the proposed deal, the Big Ten would spin off assets into a new entity.

Featured Today

Paul Cartier

Sports Organists Are Still Thriving in the Era of Raucous Arena Music

“When they walk out and they see a real organ guy, it’s like, ‘Wow.’”
Sep 27, 2025; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers center fielder Jackson Chourio (11) rounds the bases after hitting a home run during the sixth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at American Family Field.
October 4, 2025

Milwaukee Moneyball: Brewers Are Beating MLB’s Deeper Pockets

Milwaukee is holding its own against big-budget competitors.
Kōloa Rum Company Rum Rusher
September 27, 2025

Panthers Bubbly, Jets Wine, Manning Whiskey: The Sports Booze Boom

A sommelier dives into the sports booze trend—and tries Jets wine.
Nov 17, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers fans wave Terrible Towels against the Baltimore Ravens during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Stadium
September 26, 2025

Steelers’ Irish Roots Are Deeper Than NFL Dublin Game

The Steelers have history and the foundation for a future in Ireland.
NYSE

NYSE Owner Pours $2B Into Polymarket at $8B Valuation

Prediction markets keep pushing further into the mainstream.
September 12, 2025

FanDuel, Jaguars Reach $5M Deal Over Employee Theft

A Jaguars employee stole $20 million and gambled much of it with FanDuel.
Sep 18, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs the ball against the Miami Dolphins in the second half at Highmark Stadium.
exclusive
September 25, 2025

Kalshi, Polymarket Sought to Buy Prediction-Market Platform Novig

Novig is available in close to 40 states.
Sponsored

How Jenny Just Is Shaping the Future of Sports Ownership

Jenny Just on bringing her investment experience to sports ownership.
Sep 8, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) rushes the ball past Minnesota Vikings safety Theo Jackson (26) during the second half at Soldier Field.
exclusive
September 10, 2025

Americans See Little Difference Between Prediction Markets and Betting

A survey found 85% of respondents believe sports event contracts are gambling.
Sep 4, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Adoree' Jackson (8) tackles Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) during the third quarter of the game at Lincoln Financial Field.
September 5, 2025

Kalshi’s $27M NFL Opener Runs Into Tribal Challenge

California Tribes want Kalshi forced to implement geofencing.
Eagles
September 4, 2025

FanDuel Paying $80K for Eagles Trains Amid Transit Funding Fight

The gambling company is giving stopgap transit funding in Philadelphia.
Sep 1, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; TCU Horned Frogs tight end DJ Rogers (0) catches a touchdown pass as North Carolina Tar Heels defensive back Kaleb Cost (21) defends in the fourth quarter at Kenan Stadium.
September 3, 2025

Polymarket Moves Closer to Reentering the U.S.

There’s yet more prediction markets momentum as the NFL season kicks off.