One of baseball’s biggest payrolls is in jeopardy of missing the playoffs.
On Thursday the Mets blew a four-run lead and were swept by the Phillies 6–4 in a series they were outscored 27–11. Thursday’s loss was historic. The Mets became the first team in the modern era to score four or more runs in the first inning and not have another base runner the rest of the game and still lose, according to OptaStats.
The team holds a 1.5 game lead for the final wild-card spot with 15 regular-season games remaining and the Giants and Reds both surging.
The Mets team salary this season is $339 million, second in MLB behind the Dodgers at nearly $349 million. The team went into the season with expectations for a deep postseason run after signing Juan Soto in free agency to a 15-year, $765 million contract, the richest in the history of North American sports.
Instead, the Mets have been defined by unreliable starting pitching, a problematic bullpen, and an inconsistent offense despite having two of the National League’s biggest sluggers in Soto and Pete Alonso.
The Mets infamously choked away the National League East in 2007 and 2008 and had just the 2015 National League pennant to flaunt in the final decade of the Wilpons’ ownership. Steve Cohen bought the Mets for $2.4 billion in 2020, which has led to more playoff appearances, but mixed results in October. The highlight under new ownership so far was a run to the 2024 NLCS.
Why is the second-highest payroll in baseball so close to an early offseason?
Soto and the Offense
Soto’s first season in Queens has been far from a failure. Going into Friday’s game against the Rangers, the 26-year-old is batting .264 with 39 home runs and 95 runs batted in. Soto has also stolen a career-high 32 bases, with a chance to become the franchise’s first member of the 40-40 club (40 stolen bases, 40 home runs)
Perhaps the Mets’ leading indicator is Francisco Lindor. The Mets seem to go as Lindor does. In wins, Lindor is hitting .326 with an OPS of .968, while in losses he’s batting just .194.
Lindor’s struggles have been offset by Alonso, who is having a career year after he returned to the Mets on a two-year, $54 million deal. (He was unable to get a long-term contract in free agency.) Alonso has 33 home runs and 113 RBIs and has hit .304 with runners in scoring position through Thursday. Alonso’s contract has an opt-out after this season and he’s put himself in position for a bigger payday.
Pitching Woes
Soto and Alonso headlined the offseason moves made by David Stearns, president of baseball operations, but the season may be defined by what wasn’t done with the rotation.
Instead of signing an ace in free agency such as Max Fried–who wound up with the Yankees–or trading for a big arm, Stearns went status quo and re-signed Sean Manaea to a three-year, $75 million deal, and brought in Griffin Canning and Frankie Montas on smaller contracts. The team also signed Clay Holmes to a three-year deal worth $38 million. Holmes was strictly a reliever before coming to Queens.
The plan hasn’t worked out. Manea missed the first three and half months of the season due to oblique injury and has a 5.76 earned run average. Canning tore his Achilles in June after a 7–3 start and Montas recently underwent Tommy John surgery and is out until the 2027 season. Holmes started 8–4 with a 3.31 ERA, but has been inconsistent in the second half of the season as he’s thrown more than twice as many innings than any prior year.
Closer Edwin Diaz has had another strong season with a 6–2 record and 1.80 ERA. He could opt out of his current deal this offseason after signing a five-year, $102 million deal in 2022 and sign for a more lucrative one. The Mets acquired Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley at the deadline to serve as a bridge to Diaz. Hensley is 0–3 with an ERA of 11.08 since the trade.
The Mets’ brightest spot with their pitching has been internal. In August the team called up top pitching prospect Nolan McClain, who became the first player in franchise history to win his first four starts. Fellow top prospects Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat were called up shortly after and have shown early promise, too.
But the youth movement might not be enough to save the team’s season. On Friday the Mets will be reminded of what their rotation is missing when they face the best ace they’ve had this century in Rangers starter Jacob deGrom.
