On Friday, the Sixers finally announced that 2022–2023 MVP Joel Embiid would miss the rest of the season due to injury—a signal that Philadelphia, despite being in striking distance of the play-in tournament, was finally ready to focus on next year.
It was a sobering reality for the Sixers, who entered the season with the eighth-best championship odds and were projected to win more than 50 games after adding nine-time All-Star Paul George in the offseason. But the silver lining is a better chance to keep their first-round pick, which would belong to the Thunder if it does not fall within the top six.
The Sixers are currently tied with the Nets for the sixth-best odds to win the draft lottery.
The Spurs were also battling to make the play-in, especially after acquiring All-Star De’Aaron Fox at the trade deadline. But after Victor Wembanyama was ruled out for the rest of the season due to a blood clot, San Antonio can shift its attention to the draft, where it will likely have two swings at the top selection: its own pick and the Hawks’, whose first-rounder the Spurs acquired in a deal that sent Dejounte Murray to Atlanta in 2022.
Between the two picks, the Spurs currently have a 7% chance at the top pick in the draft and a 31% chance at a top-four selection to put alongside their young core in a top-heavy draft.
More Than One Prize
The 2024 NBA draft has been the most underwhelming since perhaps the 2013 class—but scouts expected a weaker group. This year’s class is the opposite.
The grand prize in the 2025 NBA draft is Cooper Flagg, the 18-year-old Duke freshman who is the favorite to win the NCAA’s Wooden Award. Flagg is not only a blue-chip prospect who could change the trajectory of any team, but he’s also expected to be one of the best U.S. players in the near future—one that bodes well for the marketing prospects of any franchise.
But Flagg is far from the only star who stands out in the 2025 draft class. Rutgers guard Dylan Harper has solidified himself as the second-best prospect, while his teammate forward Ace Bailey, while polarizing, would have likely been the top pick in last year’s class. Other players who would’ve also challenged for a top slot in last year’s draft are Illinois guard Kasparas Jakučionis and Baylor wing V.J. Edgecombe.
The bevy of talent at the top makes tanking for a top pick even more enticing this year, even with the flattened lottery odds that began in 2019, which give an equal chance at the top pick for the three worst teams (14%). That’s because the worst team in the league is guaranteed at least a top-five pick—which could explain why the Wizards, who are three games worse than any other team, are trotting out a young roster.
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