• Loading stock data...
Sunday, September 7, 2025
Fox Analyst and Media Entrepreneur Greg Olsen to Speak at Tuned In Get your ticket now!

Sportsbooks Reflect MLB’s Divide: Dodgers Heavy Favorites, White Sox No Shot

Perhaps some of the clearest signs of a widening gap within Major League Baseball come from gambling and analytics projections. 

Brad Penner-Imagn Images

As Major League Baseball experiences a growing economic divide, and perhaps an enlarging competitive one as well, sportsbooks and analytics experts are taking close notice. 

The league begins its 2025 regular season in full with two historic situations among sports bettors: The defending champion Dodgers are the league’s heaviest Opening Day betting favorite since the 2002 Yankees, according to ESPN, while the White Sox’ projected win total of 53.5 for over-under bets is the lowest such MLB prediction in nearly four decades. 

Some of this sentiment directly follows last year’s actual outcomes in which the Dodgers won their first full-season championship since 1988, while the White Sox lost 121 games, setting a modern-era MLB record and tying an American League record with 21 straight losses at one point. The betting lines, however, reflect a belief that those trends will grow, with the league’s mightiest teams becoming stronger and the weakest ones falling further behind the leaders. 

Los Angeles is mounting its title defense after a highly active offseason that included acquisitions of starting pitchers Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki, relievers Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates, and the retention of outfielder Teoscar Hernández, among other moves. The club’s luxury-tax payroll of $398.2 million for 2025 is a new league record. The White Sox, conversely, traded away arguably their most talented player, pitcher Garrett Crochet, to the Red Sox. 

The Dodgers have an implied probability of more than 25% to win the World Series on both FanDuel and DraftKings, by far the two market leaders in U.S. sports betting.

The baseball analytics community concurs strongly with the gambling industry sentiment. Baseball Prospectus projections have the Dodgers at 104.2 wins for the season, more than 10 wins greater than any other MLB club, and holding a 99.8% chance of reaching the playoffs. The White Sox have a projection of 62.5 wins for 2024, actually beating out the Marlins’ 60 and the Rockies’ 55.8, but all three teams are deemed to have literally no shot of playing in the postseason. 

FanGraphs, similarly, predicts the Dodgers will win 97.4 games and have a 97.9% chance of the postseason, with the White Sox pegged for 62.9 wins. The site also projects that Chicago, along with Colorado, has a 0% shot of the postseason. 

Despite the enlarging gaps, MLB has not had a repeat World Series winner since 2000, a streak of competitive balance unrivaled among any major men’s pro sports league in North America. The heavy favoritism for the Dodgers, however, suggests the quarter-century streak could be coming to an end. 

Linkedin
Whatsapp
Copy Link
Link Copied
Link Copied

What to Read

exclusive

Ryan Clark Could Be On Thin Ice at ESPN After Second Public..

Clark and Peter Schrager had a tense on-air moment Friday.
Blue Jays
exclusive

MLBPA, DraftKings Agree to Settle NIL Suit

MLBPA said DraftKings and other sportsbooks improperly used players’ NIL.

MLB Attendance Is Holding Steady, but Gap Widens Between Teams

Recent attendance data varies widely from market to market.
opinion

NFL RedZone Changes Have Nothing to Do With ESPN Deal

Four 15-second spots will air over RedZone’s seven hours in Week 1.

Featured Today

Aug 23, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) leads the team onto the field for warm ups before a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium.

Slow Burn: The NFL’s Private-Equity Era So Far

Three deals have been struck to date. But the league is bullish.
Tennis
September 5, 2025

The US Open Is Groaning Under the Weight of Its Own Success

New York’s tennis major is more popular than ever.
Dec 21, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) gets ready to take the field prior to a game against the Houston Texans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
September 5, 2025

How Brazil Game Fits Into NFL’s Plans for World Domination

Friday night’s Chiefs-Chargers game in São Paulo is big by design.
Oct 13, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) and wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) celebrate their touchdown pass during the second quarter against the Cleveland Browns at Lincoln Financial Field.
September 2, 2025

TV Ratings Just Changed Again. The NFL Will Be the Big Winner

Nielsen’s new viewership system will have a big impact on sports.
Sep 4, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Adoree' Jackson (8) tackles Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) during the third quarter of the game at Lincoln Financial Field.

Kalshi’s $27M NFL Opener Runs Into Tribal Challenge

California Tribes want Kalshi forced to implement geofencing.
Sep 1, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; TCU Horned Frogs tight end DJ Rogers (0) catches a touchdown pass as North Carolina Tar Heels defensive back Kaleb Cost (21) defends in the fourth quarter at Kenan Stadium.
September 3, 2025

Polymarket Moves Closer to Reentering the U.S.

There’s yet more prediction markets momentum as the NFL season kicks off.
Eagles
September 4, 2025

FanDuel Paying $80K for Eagles Trains Amid Transit Funding Fight

The gambling company is giving stopgap transit funding in Philadelphia.
Sponsored

Trailblazer Cal Calamia Is Racing for ‘Advocacy, Storytelling, and Performance’

The marathoner wants excellence—not just inclusion—to be the goal for non-binary athletes.
during the fourth quarter at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, S.C. Saturday, August 31, 2025.
September 2, 2025

Underdog Bets on Prediction Markets With Crypto.com Deal

Sports event contracts will be offered in 16 states.
Rob Bonta
August 29, 2025

Users Sue Daily Fantasy Companies After California Calls Them Illegal

Underdog Sports and Boom Fantasy were separately sued.
Saquon Barkley
August 25, 2025

NFL Warns Prediction Markets Are Sports Betting With Less Oversight

League officials say the markets “mimic” sports betting.
Malik Beasley
August 22, 2025

Malik Beasley Could Still Be Charged in Gambling Probe Despite Feds Dropping..

Beasley’s lawyer is hoping his client can return to the NBA.