Prediction Market Company Kalshi to Launch Super Bowl Betting

Kalshi is also setting up its shingle in sports.

The trading exchange filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Wednesday to put up odds on Super Bowl futures. The filing says the contracts will initially be listed Jan. 23.

This comes weeks after competing exchange Crypto.com did the same. The CFTC asked Crypto.com to take down the odds pending the regulatory review, but the exchange rebuffed the request. As Front Office Sports noted previously, Crypto.com is sensitive about labeling the market as sports betting, instead referring to them as event contracts that are traded as derivatives and regulated by the CFTC. In markets outside of sports, Kalshi has specifically referred to customers’ risk as bets.

The CFTC, which regulates the U.S. derivatives market, will flip from majority Democrat to Republican when chairman Rostin Behman leaves the commission. Commissioner Caroline Pham was appointed acting chair by President Donald Trump this week. 

Kalshi successfully fought CFTC regulation to post presidential election betting odds last year. Founded in 2018, the exchange offers trading on anything from who will win the Oscar for Best Picture to whether Trump will buy Greenland. Its backers include VC firms Sequoia, Neo, Y Combinator, Mantis VC, and private equity maven Henry Kravis. The company has raised $156 million, according to PitchBook.

Kalshi recently announced that Donald Trump Jr. joined the firm as a strategic advisor. 

There’s been discussion in sports business circles about how much of an existential threat exchange-based sports betting poses for traditional sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings.

The exchanges are available in all 50 states, whereas sportsbooks are not available in about a dozen states, including California and Texas. And exchanges can offer substantially lower “vig” on bets since they are peer-to-peer as opposed to the public betting against the house. 

This month Kalshi began offering odds on which NFL coaches would be hired by various teams with vacancies, including the Bears (who have landed Ben Johnson) and the Jaguars.

Right now, exchanges are dipping their proverbial toes in the water of futures wagers. But if and when they start offering single-game odds and player props, they’ll pose a much greater threat to the traditional sports betting industry.