Netflix Set an NFL Streaming Record. Why Is Its Stock Down on Friday?

Netflix had a seminal moment in the company’s history on Wednesday with its highly successful Christmas Day streaming of an NFL doubleheader. The stock market, however, has already largely recognized the company’s many accomplishments this year, and Friday’s market action did not include any sort of incremental NFL bump. 

Shares in the streaming giant fell by 1.8% Friday, closing at $907.55 per share, in what was the market’s first chance to respond formally to Nielsen data released late Thursday showing that Netflix averaged more than 24 million viewers for the two NFL games—setting a new mark for the most-streamed NFL games in U.S. history.

Often, big news like that would immediately send shares upward, particularly given that the NFL games are a foundational piece in Netflix’s broader ambitions in live-event streaming and the advertising business that goes with it. But in what was a generally lighter day of market activity amid the holiday week, the football success is largely pre-baked into the current valuation.

The slide for Netflix shares on Friday, following a separate drop of nearly 1% the day before, was part of a broader market decline. Even with this retreat, Netflix stock has increased nearly 94% this year. 

Analysts, meanwhile, believe there is still plenty of room for growth for Netflix’s earnings and stock price in 2025, particularly if price increases happen for the first time since January 2022—joining a series of major streaming services that have done in recent months. During the company’s last earnings call with analysts, Netflix co-president Greg Peters said “we love the low price point and increased accessibility that comes with our ad plan. It represents an incredible value.” But expectations are growing for that stance to change, at least somewhat. 

“Based on U.S. price points, Netflix is still roughly half the cost per hour of cable TV, and materially lower than movie tickets,” wrote KeyBanc. 

“With more live events coming, we believe the probability of price increases is increasing,” the firm’s analysts said. 

Different Situation

The rather muted market reaction to the NFL metrics Friday differs materially from what happened last month after Netflix’s release of internal data related to the Jake Paul-Mike Tyson boxing match. 

Even as that event suffered from widespread buffering issues, Netflix shares still rose by 3% after the release of the highly debated audience metrics, reaching another in what had been a series of company records.